Public health impacts of GHG emission reduction strategies in household energy use

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Moderator:Virpi Kollanus (see all)
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Assessment is based on the work by Wilkinson et al. 2009

Scope

Purpose

Health impacts of different climate change mitigation strategies aimed at reducing GHG emissions from household energy use.

Boundaries

Spatial:

• United Kingdom

Temporal:

• Impacts during one year, reference year 2010

Population:

• UK total population

Policy strategies:

• Increased energy efficiency of household heating by
  • Increased insulation by dwelling fabric improvements
  • Improved dwelling ventilation control
  • Fuel switching from indoor household fossil fuel combustion to electricity
  • Reduce in indoor temperatures by change in occupant behaviour

Scenarios

• Baseline
  • Distributions of efficiency for UK housing stock and associated GHG emissions and health effects
• Scenario 1: dwelling fabric improvements
  • Overall heat loss of the fabric reduced from 224 J/s per ºC to 98 j/s per ºC
• Scenario 2: improved dwelling ventilation control
  • The present permeability of the housing stock shifted to present reduced air leakage in all dwellings
  • Tightest dwellings (3 m3/m2 per h) assumed to have ideal mechanical ventilation
• Scenario 3: fuel switching
  • All indoor combustion replaced by electricity
  • Effects on CO2 emission not modelled
• Scenario 4: Occupant behaviour
  • Indoor temperature in all dwellings with average temperature > 18 ºC decreased by 1 ºC. Temperatures ≤18 ºC unchanged.
• Scenario 5: combination of scenarios 1-4

Definition

Decision variables

• Dwelling fabric improvements (yes/no)
• Improved ventilation control (yes/no)
• Fuel switch to electricity (yes/no)
• Decrease in indoor temperatures (yes/no)

Indicators

• Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
• Premature deaths
• Household energy sector greenhouse gas emissions (MT per year, housing stock average heating efficiency assumed to be 0.75)

Other variables

Indoor exposures

• Fine particles (PM2.5, µg/m3)
  • Baseline: 5.5
  • Scenario 1: 5.5
  • Scenario 2: 4.6
  • Scenario 3: 3.7
  • Scenario 4: 5.5
  • Scenario 5: 2.5
• Radon (Bq/m3)
  • Baseline: 21.7
  • Scenario 1: 21.7
  • Scenario 2: 17.2
  • Scenario 3: 21.7
  • Scenario 4: 21.7
  • Scenario 5: 17.2
• Carbon monoxide (CO, probability of poisoning)
  • Baseline: 1E-6
  • Scenario 1: 1E-6
  • Scenario 2: 1E-6
  • Scenario 3: 0
  • Scenario 4: 1E-6
  • Scenario 5: 0
• Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS, exposure expressed in ETS units)
  • Baseline: 1.5
  • Scenario 1: 1.5
  • Scenario 2: 1.7
  • Scenario 3: 1.5
  • Scenario 4: 1.5
  • Scenario 5: 1.7
• Mould growth (% with mold index >1)
  • Baseline: 17.7
  • Scenario 1: 17.3
  • Scenario 2: 20.3
  • Scenario 3: 17.7
  • Scenario 4: 18.7
  • Scenario 5: 20.8
• Cold (winter indoor temperature C)
  • Baseline: 18.1
  • Scenario 1: 18.4
  • Scenario 2: 18.2
  • Scenario 3: 18.1
  • Scenario 4: 17.9
  • Scenario 5: 18.5

Exposure-response functions

• PM2.5 exposure and cardiopulmonary mortality
  • RR 1.059 per 10 µg/m3
• PM2.5 exposure and lung cancer
  • 1.082 per 10 µg/m3
• ERF for long-term indoor exposure to radon and lung cancer
• Risk of death from acute CO toxicity
  • 1 death per million people for dwellings with combustion appliances
• ERF for ETS exposure and mortality due to myocardial infarction
  • RR 1.30 if living in the same dwelling as smoker (age >30 years)
• ETS exposure and mortality due to cerebrovascular accident (age >30 years)
  • RR 1.25 if living in the same dwelling as smoker
• ERF for indoor exposure to dampness and mold and respiratory symptoms
• ERF for short-term indoor exposure to cold and cardiovascular mortality

Analyses

• Comparative health impact assessment
• Sensitivity analyses

Indices

• Age
• Pollutant