Difference between revisions of "United States presidential election, 2012"
(→Calculations: Oklahoma code works (on desktop) and confirms Choquette results!) |
(→Calculations: code work on server, the key graph added) |
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===Calculations=== | ===Calculations=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | With this code, you can reproduce parts of the original Choquette and Johnson paper. | ||
<rcode graphics="1"> | <rcode graphics="1"> | ||
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library(ggplot2) | library(ggplot2) | ||
− | + | # OHIO DATA | |
− | |||
− | |||
− | # | ||
+ | #data.oh <- opasnet.csv("c/c8/RepublicanPrimaryElection2012_8-StateCountyTotals.csv") | ||
+ | #head(data.oh) | ||
− | + | # OKLAHOMA DATA | |
− | # | ||
− | data <- | + | data.ok <- opasnet.csv("6/6e/PrimaryElection2012OKresults_20120306.csv", sep = ",", header = TRUE) |
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
data.ok <- data.ok[data.ok$Race_desc == "FOR PRESIDENT" & data.ok$Race_party == "REPUBLICAN" , ] | data.ok <- data.ok[data.ok$Race_desc == "FOR PRESIDENT" & data.ok$Race_party == "REPUBLICAN" , ] | ||
− | data.ok$Cand_desc <- data.ok$Cand_desc[ , drop = TRUE] | + | data.ok$Cand_desc <- data.ok$Cand_desc[ , drop = TRUE] # Drop unused levels of candidate names. |
− | + | ||
− | data.ok$Precinct <- as.factor(data.ok$Precinct) | + | data.ok$Precinct <- as.factor(data.ok$Precinct) # Change precinct numbers to factors. |
− | Totals <- as.data.frame(as.table(tapply(data.ok$Total_votes, data.ok["Precinct"], sum))) | + | |
+ | Totals <- as.data.frame(as.table(tapply(data.ok$Total_votes, data.ok["Precinct"], sum))) # Total votes for each precinct. | ||
data.ok <- merge(data.ok, Totals) | data.ok <- merge(data.ok, Totals) | ||
data.ok$Support <- data.ok$Total_votes / data.ok$Freq | data.ok$Support <- data.ok$Total_votes / data.ok$Freq | ||
+ | |||
+ | # Order precincts from smaller to larger and calculate candidate-specific cumulative sums. | ||
data.ok <- data.ok[order(data.ok$Freq), ] | data.ok <- data.ok[order(data.ok$Freq), ] | ||
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data.ok$Cumfreq[data.ok$Cand_desc == i] <- cumsum(data.ok$Freq[data.ok$Cand_desc == i]) | data.ok$Cumfreq[data.ok$Cand_desc == i] <- cumsum(data.ok$Freq[data.ok$Cand_desc == i]) | ||
} | } | ||
+ | |||
+ | # Calculate cumulative support | ||
data.ok$Cumsupport <- data.ok$Cumvote / data.ok$Cumfreq | data.ok$Cumsupport <- data.ok$Cumvote / data.ok$Cumfreq | ||
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geom_point(shape=1) + # Use hollow circles | geom_point(shape=1) + # Use hollow circles | ||
geom_smooth() + # Add a loess smoothed fit curve with confidence region | geom_smooth() + # Add a loess smoothed fit curve with confidence region | ||
− | scale_x_log10() | + | opts( |
+ | axis.text.x = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | axis.text.y = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 20, angle = 90), | ||
+ | legend.text = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | legend.title = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | title = paste("Smoothed regression of support of ", candidate, " along the size of precinct"), | ||
+ | plot.title = theme_text(size=20) | ||
+ | ) + | ||
+ | scale_x_log10("Vote tally in precinct") + | ||
+ | scale_y_continuous("Candidate result in precinct, %") | ||
+ | |||
return(out) | return(out) | ||
} | } | ||
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geom_line(size = 1.2) + | geom_line(size = 1.2) + | ||
opts( | opts( | ||
− | axis.text.x = theme_text(size = | + | axis.text.x = theme_text(size = 20), |
− | axis.text.y = theme_text(size = | + | axis.text.y = theme_text(size = 20), |
− | axis.title.x = theme_text(size = | + | axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 20), |
− | axis.title.y = theme_text(size = | + | axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 20, angle = 90), |
− | legend.text = theme_text(size = | + | legend.text = theme_text(size = 20), |
− | legend.title = theme_text(size = | + | legend.title = theme_text(size = 20), |
title = "Cumulative support of candidates, Oklahoma Primary election, March 6th, 2012", | title = "Cumulative support of candidates, Oklahoma Primary election, March 6th, 2012", | ||
− | plot.title = theme_text(size= | + | plot.title = theme_text(size=20) |
) + | ) + | ||
scale_x_continuous("Cumulative vote tally") + | scale_x_continuous("Cumulative vote tally") + | ||
− | scale_y_continuous("Candidate result, | + | scale_y_continuous("Candidate result, fraction", limits = c(0, 0.5)) |
+ | |||
+ | fig("JON HUNTSMAN") | ||
+ | fig("MICHELE BACHMANN") | ||
+ | fig("MITT ROMNEY") | ||
+ | fig("NEWT GINGRICH") | ||
+ | fig("OVER VOTES") | ||
+ | fig("RICK PERRY") | ||
+ | fig("RICK SANTORUM") | ||
+ | fig("RON PAUL") | ||
+ | fig("UNDER VOTES") | ||
</rcode> | </rcode> | ||
− | + | [[image:Cumulative support in Oklahoma primary election 2012.png|thumb|500px|The data does indeed show like in the Choquette and Johnson paper. Compare to Fig 6 in <ref name="statisticalanomalies"/>]] | |
==See also== | ==See also== |
Revision as of 23:40, 5 November 2012
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In August 13, 2012, Francois Choquette and James Johnson published a paper claiming that there are such features in the Republican primary election results that are statistically implausible to occur in an election that has not been manipulated.[1] In Finland, the issue was first raised by the Facebook group Open Democrary Finland on October 31, 2012.
Contents
Websites describing the situation
- http://www.occupy.com/article/retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-stealing-elections
- http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2008_2012_ElectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.51.pdf
- http://www.publici.com/content/pima-county-election-integrity-activists-seek-accurate-audit-ballots
- http://www.occupy.com/article/retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-stealing-elections
Research plan
The reseach question is this:
Based on statistical analysis of the election data, is there evidence of fraud in the US presidential election, 2012?
- Collect large enough a group of volunteers capable of a) data management, b) statistical analysis, c) wiki working, d) dissemination.
- Work with the primary election data until the real presidential election data comes out on Tuesday.
- Develop data management systems for voting data in Opasnet.
- Develop statistical analyses (based on [1]) in Opasnet.
- Agree on division of tasks for the presidential election.
- When the presidential election data becomes available, manage and analyse the data immediately based on the task devision.
- Publish results widely.
Data
Various sources (not evaluated, some not very good)
- http://search.usa.gov/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&sc=0&query=primary+election+results+2012&m=&embedded=&affiliate=usagov&filter=moderate&commit=Search
- http://www.elections.ny.gov/2012ElectionResults.html
- http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/
- http://www.nvsos.gov/silverstate2012pri/
- http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/2012/primary/ Data: http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/2012/primary/files/media.txt
- http://sos.nh.gov/2012RepPresPrim.aspx?id=12938 Data: sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=13168
- Arizona: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/36496/75798/en/select-county.html Arizona
- Alabama: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AL/38312/86349/en/summary.html
- Counties http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AL/38312/86349/en/md_data.html?cid=30& (similar system as in Arizona)
- Louisiana: http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/03242012/03242012_Statewide.html
- West Virginia: http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/download.aspx?year=2012&eid=8
- Counties: apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/readfile.aspx?path=OC84LVN0YXRlQ291bnR5VG90YWxzLmNzdg==
- Kentucky: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/38672/84521/en/select-county.html
State | County-level data | Precinct-level data | Description | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | AL | [2] | ||
Alaska | AK | |||
Arizona | AZ | |||
Arkansas | AR | |||
California | CA | |||
Colorado | CO | |||
Connecticut | CT | |||
Delaware | DE | |||
Florida | FL | |||
Georgia | GA | |||
Hawaii | HI | |||
Idaho | ID | |||
Illinois | IL | |||
Indiana | IN | |||
Iowa | IA | |||
Kansas | KS | |||
Kentucky | KY | [3] [4] | ||
Louisiana | LA | [5] | Counties separately | |
Maine | ME | |||
Maryland | MD | |||
Massachusetts | MA | |||
Michigan | MI | |||
Minnesota | MN | |||
Mississippi | MS | |||
Missouri | MO | |||
Montana | MT | |||
Nebraska | NE | |||
Nevada | NV | |||
New Hampshire | NH | |||
New Jersey | NJ | |||
New Mexico | NM | |||
New York | NY | |||
North Carolina | NC | |||
North Dakota | ND | |||
Ohio | OH | Excel 6th March | ||
Oklahoma | OK | Zip 6th March | ||
Oregon | OR | |||
Pennsylvania | PA | |||
Rhode Island | RI | |||
South Carolina | SC | |||
South Dakota | SD | |||
Tennessee | TN | |||
Texas | TX | |||
Utah | UT | |||
Vermont | VT | |||
Virginia | VA | |||
Washington | WA | |||
West Virginia | WV | [6] 8th May | ||
Wisconsin | WI | |||
Wyoming | WY |
From the Coquette and Johnson paper
- US Census Bureau: Census 2000 U.S. Gazetteer Files. County locations: [7]
- US Census Bureau: Population, Housing Units, Area, and Density 2010. Broken?
- Iowa Election Results, January 3, 2012: [8]
- New Hampshire Election Results, January 10, 2012: [9]
- Arizona Election Results, February 28, 2012: [10] [11]
- Ohio Election Results, March 6, 2012: [12]
- Oklahoma Election Results, March 6, 2012: [13]
- Alabama Election Results, March 13, 2012: [14] [15]
- Louisiana Election Results, March 24, 2012: [16] [17]
- Wisconsin Election Results, April 3, 2012: [18]
- West Virginia Election Results, May 8, 2012: [19]
- Kentucky Election Results, May 22, 2012: [20]
- [21] [22]
Unsuccessful searches of the claimed fraud
The claim that a major presidential candidate is in the finals because of an election fraud is a very severe one. One could assume that this would make headlines, if evidence is strong. However, nothing has been found from the major U.S. daily newspapers.
- The Wall Street Journal
- USA Today
- ABC News
- New York Times
- Los Angeles Times
- Washington Post
- Chicago Tribune
- Wikipedia talk page about the election (fraud issue raised 29th October, no activity since)
Calculations
With this code, you can reproduce parts of the original Choquette and Johnson paper.
See also
References
Related files
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