Difference between revisions of "United States presidential election, 2012"
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+ | [[en:United States presidential election, 2012]] | ||
+ | [[Category:US presidential election 2012]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Code under inspection]] | ||
{{encyclopedia|moderator=Jouni|stub=Yes}} | {{encyclopedia|moderator=Jouni|stub=Yes}} | ||
In August 13, 2012, Francois Choquette and James Johnson published a paper claiming that there are such features in the Republican primary election results that are statistically implausible to occur in an election that has not been manipulated.<ref name="statisticalanomalies">Francois Choquette, James Johnson: Republican Primary Election 2012 Results: Amazing Statistical Anomalies. The Money Party, 2012. | In August 13, 2012, Francois Choquette and James Johnson published a paper claiming that there are such features in the Republican primary election results that are statistically implausible to occur in an election that has not been manipulated.<ref name="statisticalanomalies">Francois Choquette, James Johnson: Republican Primary Election 2012 Results: Amazing Statistical Anomalies. The Money Party, 2012. | ||
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==Data== | ==Data== | ||
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{| {{prettytable}} | {| {{prettytable}} | ||
− | |+ Data of Presidential | + | |+ Data of Presidential Election 2012, including Republican Party Primary Election. |
− | ! State|| || | + | ! State|| || Primary election|| Presidential election || Description |
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Alabama|| AL|| [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AL/38312/86349/en/md_data.html?cid=30&]|| || | + | | Alabama|| AL|| [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AL/38312/86349/en/md_data.html?cid=30& Precincts on county files] [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AL/38312/86349/en/summary.html]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Alaska|| AK|| || || | | Alaska|| AK|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Arizona|| AZ|| || || | + | | Arizona|| AZ|| [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/36496/75798/en/md_data.html?cid=105& Precincts on county pages] [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/36496/75798/en/select-county.html] [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/Apache/36498/73412/en/md_data.html?cid=10& Precincts]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Arkansas|| AR|| || || | | Arkansas|| AR|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | California|| CA|| || || | + | | California|| CA|| || [http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/county/alameda/ Counties] || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Colorado|| CO|| || || | | Colorado|| CO|| || || | ||
Line 70: | Line 53: | ||
| Georgia|| GA|| || || | | Georgia|| GA|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Hawaii|| HI|| || || | + | | Hawaii|| HI|| [http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/2012/primary/] [http://hawaii.gov/elections/results/2012/primary/files/media.txt Data]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Idaho|| ID|| || || | | Idaho|| ID|| || || | ||
Line 82: | Line 65: | ||
| Kansas|| KS|| || || | | Kansas|| KS|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Kentucky|| KY|| [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/38672/84521/en/select-county.html] [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/38672/84521/en/reports.html] || || | + | | Kentucky|| KY|| [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/38672/84521/en/select-county.html] [http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/38672/84521/en/reports.html] [http://elect.ky.gov/results/2010-2019/Pages/2012primaryandgeneralelectionresults.aspx]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Louisiana|| LA|| [http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/03242012/03242012_45596.html] | + | | Louisiana|| LA|| [http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/03242012/03242012_45596.html] [http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/03242012/03242012_01_45596_Precinct.html Counties separately] [http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/03242012/03242012_Statewide.html] [http://staticresults.sos.la.gov/03242012/03242012_45596.html Counties]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Maine|| ME|| || || | | Maine|| ME|| || || | ||
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| Massachusetts|| MA|| || || | | Massachusetts|| MA|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Michigan|| MI|| || || | + | | Michigan|| MI|| [http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12PPR/ Counties] || || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Minnesota|| MN|| || || | | Minnesota|| MN|| || || | ||
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| Nebraska|| NE|| || || | | Nebraska|| NE|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Nevada|| NV|| || || | + | | Nevada|| NV|| [http://www.nvsos.gov/silverstate2012pri/] || || |
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | New Hampshire|| NH|| || || | + | | New Hampshire|| NH|| [http://sos.nh.gov/2012RepPresPrim.aspx?id=12938 Excel, precincts on county sheets] [http://sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=13168 Data]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| New Jersey|| NJ|| || || | | New Jersey|| NJ|| || || | ||
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| New Mexico|| NM|| || || | | New Mexico|| NM|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | New York|| NY|| || || | + | | New York|| NY|| [http://www.elections.ny.gov/2012ElectionResults.html]|| || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| North Carolina|| NC|| || || | | North Carolina|| NC|| || || | ||
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| North Dakota|| ND|| || || | | North Dakota|| ND|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Ohio|| OH | + | | Ohio|| OH|| [http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections/Research/electResultsMain/2012results/2012precincts.aspx Excel for precincts] 6th March [https://s3.amazonaws.com/redistricting_supplement_data/redist/dBlock_elect.zip block level election data created by Mark Salling] [http://www.publicmapping.org/resources/data]|| [http://www2.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=212:27:0::NO::: County level] || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Oklahoma|| OK|| || [http://www.ok.gov/elections/The_Archives/Election_Results/2012_Election_Results/index.html Zip] 6th March|| | | Oklahoma|| OK|| || [http://www.ok.gov/elections/The_Archives/Election_Results/2012_Election_Results/index.html Zip] 6th March|| | ||
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| Oregon|| OR|| || || | | Oregon|| OR|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | Pennsylvania|| PA|| || || | + | | Pennsylvania|| PA|| || [http://www.chesco.org/index.aspx?NID=2112 Chester county] || |
|---- | |---- | ||
| Rhode Island|| RI|| || || | | Rhode Island|| RI|| || || | ||
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| Washington|| WA|| || || | | Washington|| WA|| || || | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
− | | West Virginia|| WV|| || [http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/download.aspx?year=2012&eid=8 ] 8th May|| | + | | West Virginia|| WV|| [http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/download.aspx?year=2012&eid=8] |
+ | [http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/readfile.aspx?path=OC84LVN0YXRlQ291bnR5VG90YWxzLmNzdg== Counties]|| [http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/download.aspx?year=2012&eid=8 Precincts in county-specific files] 8th May|| | ||
|---- | |---- | ||
| Wisconsin|| WI|| || || | | Wisconsin|| WI|| || || | ||
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library(ggplot2) | library(ggplot2) | ||
− | # OHIO DATA | + | ###### Graph functions |
+ | |||
+ | fig <- function(data, candidate, log = TRUE) { | ||
+ | out <- ggplot(data[data$Candidate == candidate , ], aes(x = Tally, y = Support)) + | ||
+ | geom_point(shape=1) + # Use hollow circles | ||
+ | geom_smooth() + # Add a loess smoothed fit curve with confidence region | ||
+ | geom_smooth(method = lm) + | ||
+ | opts( | ||
+ | axis.text.x = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | axis.text.y = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | axis.title.x = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | axis.title.y = theme_text(size = 20, angle = 90), | ||
+ | legend.text = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | legend.title = theme_text(size = 20), | ||
+ | title = paste("Smoothed regression of support of ", candidate, " along the size of precinct"), | ||
+ | plot.title = theme_text(size=20) | ||
+ | ) + | ||
+ | scale_y_continuous("Candidate result in precinct, %") + | ||
+ | if(log) {scale_x_log10("Vote tally in precinct") } else {scale_x_continuous("Vote tally in precinct") } | ||
+ | |||
+ | return(out) | ||
+ | } | ||
+ | |||
+ | cumfig <- function(data, candidate) { | ||
+ | out <- ggplot(data[data$Candidate == candidate , ], aes(x = Cumtally, y = Cumsupport)) + | ||
+ | geom_point(shape = 1) + | ||
+ | geom_smooth() | ||
+ | return(out) | ||
+ | } | ||
+ | |||
+ | ## OHIO ELECTION DATA NOV 2012 | ||
+ | |||
+ | Fetch2(data.frame(Name = "election.ohio.2012", Key = "SSDDvuDfVDKOhlkO")) | ||
+ | colnames(election.ohio.2012@data)[colnames(election.ohio.2012@data) == "REGISTERED_VOTERS"] <- "Tally" | ||
+ | |||
+ | election.ohio.2012@data <- merge( | ||
+ | election.ohio.2012@data, | ||
+ | as.data.frame(as.table(tapply(election.ohio.2012@data$Result, election.ohio.2012@data[c("County", "Election")], sum))) | ||
+ | ) # Total votes for each county and election. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | election.ohio.2012@data$Support <- election.ohio.2012@data$Result / election.ohio.2012@data$Freq | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | fig(election.ohio.2012@data, "Obama, Barack (D)") | ||
+ | fig(election.ohio.2012@data, "Romney, Mitt (R)") | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | # OHIO PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION DATA | ||
#data.oh <- opasnet.csv("c/c8/RepublicanPrimaryElection2012_8-StateCountyTotals.csv") | #data.oh <- opasnet.csv("c/c8/RepublicanPrimaryElection2012_8-StateCountyTotals.csv") | ||
#head(data.oh) | #head(data.oh) | ||
− | # OKLAHOMA DATA | + | # OKLAHOMA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION DATA |
data.ok <- opasnet.csv("6/6e/PrimaryElection2012OKresults_20120306.csv", sep = ",", header = TRUE) | data.ok <- opasnet.csv("6/6e/PrimaryElection2012OKresults_20120306.csv", sep = ",", header = TRUE) | ||
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for(i in levels(data.ok$Cand_desc)) { | for(i in levels(data.ok$Cand_desc)) { | ||
data.ok$Cumvote[data.ok$Cand_desc == i] <- cumsum(data.ok$Total_vote[data.ok$Cand_desc == i]) | data.ok$Cumvote[data.ok$Cand_desc == i] <- cumsum(data.ok$Total_vote[data.ok$Cand_desc == i]) | ||
− | data.ok$ | + | data.ok$Cumtally[data.ok$Cand_desc == i] <- cumsum(data.ok$Freq[data.ok$Cand_desc == i]) |
} | } | ||
− | + | colnames(data.ok)[colnames(data.ok) == "Freq"] <- "Tally" | |
+ | colnames(data.ok)[colnames(data.ok) == "Cand_desc"] <- "Candidate" | ||
− | |||
− | + | # Calculate cumulative support | |
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
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− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
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− | + | data.ok$Cumsupport <- data.ok$Cumvote / data.ok$Cumtally | |
− | |||
− | + | ggplot(data.ok, aes(x = Cumtally, y = Cumsupport, colour = Candidate)) + | |
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | ggplot(data.ok, aes(x = | ||
geom_line(size = 1.2) + | geom_line(size = 1.2) + | ||
opts( | opts( | ||
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scale_y_continuous("Candidate result, fraction", limits = c(0, 0.5)) | scale_y_continuous("Candidate result, fraction", limits = c(0, 0.5)) | ||
− | fig("JON HUNTSMAN") | + | fig(data.ok, "JON HUNTSMAN") |
− | fig("MICHELE BACHMANN") | + | fig(data.ok, "MICHELE BACHMANN") |
− | fig("MITT ROMNEY") | + | fig(data.ok, "MITT ROMNEY") |
− | fig("NEWT GINGRICH") | + | fig(data.ok, "MITT ROMNEY", log = FALSE) |
− | fig("OVER VOTES") | + | fig(data.ok, "NEWT GINGRICH") |
− | fig("RICK PERRY") | + | fig(data.ok, "NEWT GINGRICH", log = FALSE) |
− | fig("RICK SANTORUM") | + | fig(data.ok, "OVER VOTES") |
− | fig("RON PAUL") | + | fig(data.ok, "RICK PERRY") |
− | fig("UNDER VOTES") | + | fig(data.ok, "RICK SANTORUM") |
+ | fig(data.ok, "RICK SANTORUM", log = FALSE) | ||
+ | fig(data.ok, "RON PAUL") | ||
+ | fig(data.ok, "UNDER VOTES") | ||
</rcode> | </rcode> | ||
+ | |||
+ | {{comment|# |Code seems to work, but gives a huge yellow errorbox.|--[[User:Heta|Heta]] 12:53, 27 August 2013 (EEST)}} | ||
+ | |||
+ | * [http://wiki.stdout.org/rcookbook/Graphs/Scatterplots%20%28ggplot2%29/ Help for geom_smooth()] | ||
[[image:Cumulative support in Oklahoma primary election 2012.png|thumb|500px|The data does indeed show like in the Choquette and Johnson paper. Compare to Fig 6 in <ref name="statisticalanomalies"/>]] | [[image:Cumulative support in Oklahoma primary election 2012.png|thumb|500px|The data does indeed show like in the Choquette and Johnson paper. Compare to Fig 6 in <ref name="statisticalanomalies"/>]] | ||
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* [[:op_fi:Venäjän vaalit 2011]] | * [[:op_fi:Venäjän vaalit 2011]] | ||
* [http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/breaking-retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-is-stealing-elections/article20598.html An UK column about the Amazing Statistical Anomalies paper] | * [http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/breaking-retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-is-stealing-elections/article20598.html An UK column about the Amazing Statistical Anomalies paper] | ||
+ | * [http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/print/ Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win] | ||
+ | * [http://www.stanford.edu/~jrodden/chen_rodden_florida.pdf Tobler’s Law, Urbanization, and Electoral Bias: Why Compact, Contiguous Districts are Bad for the Democrats] by Jowei Chen | ||
==References== | ==References== |
Latest revision as of 09:53, 27 August 2013
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In August 13, 2012, Francois Choquette and James Johnson published a paper claiming that there are such features in the Republican primary election results that are statistically implausible to occur in an election that has not been manipulated.[1] In Finland, the issue was first raised by the Facebook group Open Democrary Finland on October 31, 2012.
Contents
Websites describing the situation
- http://www.occupy.com/article/retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-stealing-elections
- http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/2008_2012_ElectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.51.pdf
- http://www.publici.com/content/pima-county-election-integrity-activists-seek-accurate-audit-ballots
- http://www.occupy.com/article/retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-stealing-elections
Research plan
The reseach question is this:
Based on statistical analysis of the election data, is there evidence of fraud in the US presidential election, 2012?
- Collect large enough a group of volunteers capable of a) data management, b) statistical analysis, c) wiki working, d) dissemination.
- Work with the primary election data until the real presidential election data comes out on Tuesday.
- Develop data management systems for voting data in Opasnet.
- Develop statistical analyses (based on [1]) in Opasnet.
- Agree on division of tasks for the presidential election.
- When the presidential election data becomes available, manage and analyse the data immediately based on the task devision.
- Publish results widely.
Data
State | Primary election | Presidential election | Description | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | AL | Precincts on county files [2] | ||
Alaska | AK | |||
Arizona | AZ | Precincts on county pages [3] Precincts | ||
Arkansas | AR | |||
California | CA | Counties | ||
Colorado | CO | |||
Connecticut | CT | |||
Delaware | DE | |||
Florida | FL | |||
Georgia | GA | |||
Hawaii | HI | [4] Data | ||
Idaho | ID | |||
Illinois | IL | |||
Indiana | IN | |||
Iowa | IA | |||
Kansas | KS | |||
Kentucky | KY | [5] [6] [7] | ||
Louisiana | LA | [8] Counties separately [9] Counties | ||
Maine | ME | |||
Maryland | MD | |||
Massachusetts | MA | |||
Michigan | MI | Counties | ||
Minnesota | MN | |||
Mississippi | MS | |||
Missouri | MO | |||
Montana | MT | |||
Nebraska | NE | |||
Nevada | NV | [10] | ||
New Hampshire | NH | Excel, precincts on county sheets Data | ||
New Jersey | NJ | |||
New Mexico | NM | |||
New York | NY | [11] | ||
North Carolina | NC | |||
North Dakota | ND | |||
Ohio | OH | Excel for precincts 6th March block level election data created by Mark Salling [12] | County level | |
Oklahoma | OK | Zip 6th March | ||
Oregon | OR | |||
Pennsylvania | PA | Chester county | ||
Rhode Island | RI | |||
South Carolina | SC | |||
South Dakota | SD | |||
Tennessee | TN | |||
Texas | TX | |||
Utah | UT | |||
Vermont | VT | |||
Virginia | VA | |||
Washington | WA | |||
West Virginia | WV | [13]
Counties|| Precincts in county-specific files 8th May|| | ||
Wisconsin | WI | |||
Wyoming | WY |
From the Coquette and Johnson paper
- US Census Bureau: Census 2000 U.S. Gazetteer Files. County locations: [14]
- US Census Bureau: Population, Housing Units, Area, and Density 2010. Broken?
- Iowa Election Results, January 3, 2012: [15]
- New Hampshire Election Results, January 10, 2012: [16]
- Arizona Election Results, February 28, 2012: [17] [18]
- Ohio Election Results, March 6, 2012: [19]
- Oklahoma Election Results, March 6, 2012: [20]
- Alabama Election Results, March 13, 2012: [21] [22]
- Louisiana Election Results, March 24, 2012: [23] [24]
- Wisconsin Election Results, April 3, 2012: [25]
- West Virginia Election Results, May 8, 2012: [26]
- Kentucky Election Results, May 22, 2012: [27]
- [28] [29]
Unsuccessful searches of the claimed fraud
The claim that a major presidential candidate is in the finals because of an election fraud is a very severe one. One could assume that this would make headlines, if evidence is strong. However, nothing has been found from the major U.S. daily newspapers.
- The Wall Street Journal
- USA Today
- ABC News
- New York Times
- Los Angeles Times
- Washington Post
- Chicago Tribune
- Wikipedia talk page about the election (fraud issue raised 29th October, no activity since)
Calculations
With this code, you can reproduce parts of the original Choquette and Johnson paper.
--# : Code seems to work, but gives a huge yellow errorbox. --Heta 12:53, 27 August 2013 (EEST)
See also
- op_fi:Venäjän vaalit 2011
- An UK column about the Amazing Statistical Anomalies paper
- Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
- Tobler’s Law, Urbanization, and Electoral Bias: Why Compact, Contiguous Districts are Bad for the Democrats by Jowei Chen
References
Related files
<mfanonymousfilelist></mfanonymousfilelist>