Monte Carlo simulation
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Monte Carlo simulation is a method for sampling values from a probability distribution and running a model thousands of times. As a result, a distribution is created for the variable of interest. There are several software tools available for this purpose.
Software
Analytica is a Monte Carlo simulation program that has a user-friendly graphical interface. It is a computational tool for predefined risk/decision models where all the relationships have been mathematically defined.
The main properties are
- Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation
- model structure based on variables and links (similar to DAGs, directed acyclic graphs)
- variable definition using attributes (that are similar to those in the pyrkilo method)
- handling of multidimensional variables in an intelligent way
- hierarchical model structures using modules (i.e. submodels)
- fairly simple file format using XML
- interfaces for importing and exporting data from and to Excel and SQL databases
The main problems include
- not widely used
- commercial program with non-trivial license fees
Discussion on Monte Carlo programs
Statements: What should be the program of choice for Monte Carlo modelling?
Resolution: Analytica is the program to start with, but other programs may be used also. (A stable resolution, when found, should be updated to the main page.) |
| Argumentation:
←11: A) is a good choice. --Jouni 22:11, 11 March 2007 (EET)
←6 B) is a good choice.
←7: C) is a good choice. --Jouni 20:37, 8 March 2007 (EET)
←8 D) is a good choice. --Jouni 22:11, 11 March 2007 (EET) |
