Difference between revisions of "Lung cancer cases due to radon in Europe"

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Line 94: Line 94:
 
!Policy!!2010!!2020!!2030!!2050
 
!Policy!!2010!!2020!!2030!!2050
 
|----
 
|----
|BAU || 37091 (36015-38167) || 44370 (43124-45616) || 50295 (48582-52008) || 54519 (52653-56386)
+
|BAU || 42691 (22042-95542) || 51138 (24733-111979) || 57618 (25785-137181) || 62461 (27023-143632)
 
|----
 
|----
|All || NA || 45737 (44244-47230) || 58804 (56731-60878) || 68994 (66156-71832)
+
|All || NA || 53385 (25402-130453) || 68338 (28863-171718) || 81873 (31372-239696)
 
|----
 
|----
|Biomass || NA || NA || NA || 69412 (66698-72125)
+
|Biomass || NA || NA || NA || 81849 (32497-218247)
 
|----
 
|----
|Insulation || NA || NA || NA || 68539 (65955-71124)
+
|Insulation || NA || NA || NA || 80534 (32445-236962)
 
|----
 
|----
|Renovation || NA || NA || NA || 80139 (76838-83440)
+
|Renovation || NA || NA || NA || 94075 (35396-288323)
 
|----
 
|----
 
|}
 
|}
Line 110: Line 110:
 
! Country of observation!! Mean!! SD
 
! Country of observation!! Mean!! SD
 
|----
 
|----
|| Austria|| 954|| 866
+
| Austria
 +
| 1105
 +
| 1146
 
|----
 
|----
|| Belgium|| 733|| 566
+
| Belgium
 +
| 857
 +
| 796
 
|----
 
|----
|| Bulgaria|| 265|| 279
+
| Bulgaria
 +
| 303
 +
| 382
 
|----
 
|----
|| Switzerland|| 1389|| 2101
+
| Switzerland
 +
| 1636
 +
| 2835
 
|----
 
|----
|| Cyprus|| 8|| 9
+
| Cyprus
 +
| 10
 +
| 14
 
|----
 
|----
|| Germany|| 4080|| 2857
+
| Germany
 +
| 4754
 +
| 4305
 
|----
 
|----
|| Denmark|| 326|| 300
+
| Denmark
 +
| 382
 +
| 408
 
|----
 
|----
|| Estonia|| 190|| 177
+
| Estonia
 +
| 222
 +
| 239
 
|----
 
|----
|| Spain|| 7491|| 14273
+
| Spain
 +
| 8245
 +
| 15249
 
|----
 
|----
|| Finland|| 699|| 563
+
| Finland
 +
| 805
 +
| 792
 
|----
 
|----
|| France|| 6903|| 8818
+
| France
 +
| 8204
 +
| 12176
 
|----
 
|----
|| Greece|| 725|| 708
+
| Greece
 +
| 857
 +
| 977
 
|----
 
|----
|| Hungary|| 1374|| 1558
+
| Hungary
 +
| 1583
 +
| 1985
 
|----
 
|----
|| Ireland|| 463|| 439
+
| Ireland
 +
| 533
 +
| 580
 
|----
 
|----
|| Italy|| 4355|| 3537
+
| Italy
 +
| 5035
 +
| 5117
 
|----
 
|----
|| Lithuania|| 191|| 176
+
| Lithuania
 +
| 223
 +
| 233
 
|----
 
|----
|| Luxembourg|| 59|| 47
+
| Luxembourg
 +
| 68
 +
| 64
 
|----
 
|----
|| Latvia|| 195|| 196
+
| Latvia
 +
| 229
 +
| 289
 
|----
 
|----
|| Malta|| 38|| 38
+
| Malta
 +
| 43
 +
| 50
 
|----
 
|----
|| Netherlands|| 445|| 217
+
| Netherlands
 +
| 504
 +
| 338
 
|----
 
|----
|| Norway|| 492|| 463
+
| Norway
 +
| 566
 +
| 667
 
|----
 
|----
|| Poland|| 1914|| 1387
+
| Poland
 +
| 2175
 +
| 1864
 
|----
 
|----
|| Portugal|| 1020|| 889
+
| Portugal
 +
| 1183
 +
| 1208
 
|----
 
|----
|| Romania|| 1063|| 1039
+
| Romania
 +
| 1233
 +
| 1357
 
|----
 
|----
|| Sweden|| 1206|| 1233
+
| Sweden
 +
| 1353
 +
| 1475
 
|----
 
|----
|| Slovakia|| 514|| 494
+
| Slovakia
 +
| 586
 +
| 661
 
|----
 
|----
|| '''Total'''|| '''37091'''||  
+
|| '''Total'''|| '''42691'''||  
 
|----
 
|----
 
|}
 
|}

Revision as of 14:26, 14 January 2011


Scope

Mortality due to indoor radon concentrations.

  • Spatial: Europe
  • Temporal: years 2010-2050

Definition

  • Lung cancer cases calculated from radon concentration using <math>cases = impact function * concentration * population</math>. IF taken from HEIMTSA and INTARESE (Darby 2004; Darby 2005).
  • The referenced impact function is scaled down in assuming only 4.6% of population is exposed, but we assume all are exposed.

Data

Dependencies

Unit

cases per year

Formula

R code

#library(ff)
#mortlocs <- op_baseGetLocs("opasnet_base", "Op_en2778")
#mort <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en2778", include = mortlocs[grep("C34|1034|UE15|All Ages", mortlocs$loc),"loc_id"])
#poplocs <- op_baseGetLocs("opasnet_base", "Op_en4691")
pop <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en4691", include = 1367, exclude = c(1435, 1436))
#countries <- c("AT", "BE", "BG", "CH", "CY", "CZ", "DE", "DK", "EE", "ES", "FI", "FR", "GR", "HU", "IE", "IS", "IT", "LT", "LU", 
#	"LV", "MT", "NL", "NO", "PL", "PT", "RO", "SE", "SI", "SK", "UK")
countries <- c("Austria", "Belgium", "Bulgaria", "Switzerland", "Cyprus", "Czech Republic", "Germany", "Denmark", "Estonia", "Spain", 
	"Finland", "France", "Greece", "Hungary", "Ireland", "Iceland", "Italy", "Lithuania", "Luxembourg", "Latvia", "Malta", "Netherlands", 
	"Norway", "Poland", "Portugal", "Romania", "Sweden", "Slowenia", "Slovakia", "United Kingdom")
conc <- op_baseGetData("opasnet_base", "Op_en4713")
levels(pop[,"CountryID"]) <- countries
colnames(pop)[4] <- "Country"
colnames(pop)[8] <- "Population"
#y <- 0
#mort0 <- mort[1,]
#temp <- mort[1,]
#for (i in 1:length(levels(mort[,"Country"]))) {
#	icountry <- levels(mort[,"Country"])[i]
#	temp <- mort[mort[,"Country"] == icountry&mort[,"Age"] == "All Ages"&mort[,"Year"] == as.character(max(as.numeric(as.character(mort[
#	mort[, "Country"] == icountry, "Year"])))),]
#	if(nrow(temp)>0) mort0[(y+1):(y+nrow(temp)),] <- temp[,]
#	y <- nrow(mort0)
#}
#mort0 <- mort0[,c(3,4,5,6,7,9)]
pop <- pop[,c(3,4,5,6,7,8)]
#conc <- conc[,c(2,3,4,5)]
#mort0array <- DataframeToArray(mort0)
levels(pop[,"Age"])[1] <- "All Ages" #Fixed to match mortality format
#popxmort0 <- IntArray(pop, mort0array, "Mortality")
#ffpopxmort0 <- ffdf(Age=as.ff(popxmort0[,1]), Country=as.ff(popxmort0[,2]), Rate=as.ff(popxmort0[,3]), Sex=as.ff(popxmort0[,4]), 
#	Year=as.ff(popxmort0[,5]), Population=as.ff(popxmort0[,6]), Cause=as.ff(factor(popxmort0[,7])), List=as.ff(factor(popxmort0[,8])), 
#	Mortality=as.ff(popxmort0[,9]))
concarray <- DataframeToArray(conc)
#meanconcarray <- apply(concarray, c(2,3), mean)
#ffconcarray <- as.ff(concarray)
popxconc <- IntArray(pop, concarray[1:1000,,,], "Concentration")
#popxmort0xconc <- IntArray(popxmort0, concarray[1:1000,,])
#y <- 1
#temp <- IntArray(ffpopxmort0[1,], concarray)
#ffpopxmort0xconc <- temp[]
#for (i in 1:(nrow(ffpopxmort0)%/%5)) {
#	temp[] <- IntArray(ffpopxmort0[(1+(i-1)*5):(i*5),], concarray)
#	ffpopxmort0xconc[y:(y+nrow(temp)-1)] <- temp[]
#	y <- y + nrow(temp)
#}
#for (i in list(1=1:5, 2=8:3)) print(i[1]+i[2])
k <- rnorm(nrow(popxconc), 0.16, (0.31-0.05)/3.92)*58.2 #RR * background rate
lungmortality <- data.frame(popxconc[,c("obs","Country","policy","Year","Age","Rate","Sex")], Result = k * popxconc[, 
"Concentration"] / 100 * popxconc[, "Population"] / 100000)

Result

Show results


Lung cancer cases in Europe due to indoor radon in residences (mean and 95% confidence interval).
Year
Policy 2010 2020 2030 2050
BAU 42691 (22042-95542) 51138 (24733-111979) 57618 (25785-137181) 62461 (27023-143632)
All NA 53385 (25402-130453) 68338 (28863-171718) 81873 (31372-239696)
Biomass NA NA NA 81849 (32497-218247)
Insulation NA NA NA 80534 (32445-236962)
Renovation NA NA NA 94075 (35396-288323)
Lung cancer cases attributable to indoor radon in residences in Europe, year 2010.
Country of observation Mean SD
Austria 1105 1146
Belgium 857 796
Bulgaria 303 382
Switzerland 1636 2835
Cyprus 10 14
Germany 4754 4305
Denmark 382 408
Estonia 222 239
Spain 8245 15249
Finland 805 792
France 8204 12176
Greece 857 977
Hungary 1583 1985
Ireland 533 580
Italy 5035 5117
Lithuania 223 233
Luxembourg 68 64
Latvia 229 289
Malta 43 50
Netherlands 504 338
Norway 566 667
Poland 2175 1864
Portugal 1183 1208
Romania 1233 1357
Sweden 1353 1475
Slovakia 586 661
Total 42691

See also

Keywords

References


Related files

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