Difference between revisions of "Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish"

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[[Category:Risk assessments]]
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[[Category:Fish]]
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The [[:beneris:Image:Mercury vs omega-3 xml.ANA |Analytica model file]] contains the actual calculations for this assessment.  
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[[Category:Heavy metals]]
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The actual code created with the ana-wiki converter can be found from [http://www.pyrkilo.fi/beneris/index.php?title=Risk_assessment_of_MeHg_and_n-3_fatty_acids_in_fish&oldid=3164].
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[[Category:Benefit-risk assessment]]
 +
{{assessment|moderator=Olli
 +
| reference = {{publication
 +
| authors        = Jouni T. Tuomisto, Olli Leino
 +
| page          = Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish
 +
| explanation    =
 +
| publishingyear = 2010
 +
| urn            =
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| elsewhere      =
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}}
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}}
 +
[[op_fi:Hyöty-riskiarviointi metyylielohopeasta ja omega-3 rasvahapoista kalassa]]
  
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==Scope==
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{{summary box
 +
| question = What are the effects of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids on development of intelligence quotient (IQ) in children? The source of exposure is Finnish fish consumption.
 +
| answer =  
 +
* The consumption of oily fish can be increased without a fear of detrimental effects of methyl mercury in the children. In contrast, the consumption of predator fish, especially pike, should be avoided during pregnancy.
 +
* The case seems to be fairly well established, as the total value of additional information is fairly low.
 +
}}
  
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===Purpose===
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[[Image:Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish diagram.png]]
  
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This assessment evaluates the effects of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids on development of IQ in children. The source of exposure is Finnish fish consumption.  
+
The [[:Image:Mercury vs omega-3.ANA|Analytica model file]] contains the actual calculations for this assessment.
  
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===Boundaries===
+
This project is planned to serve as a case study to represent the utilization of the [[open assessment]] method.
  
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* Population of Finland
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== Scope  ==
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* Current situation
 
  
 +
=== Purpose  ===
  
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===Scenarios===
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What are the effects of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids on development of intelligence quotient (IQ) in children? The source of exposure is Finnish fish consumption.
  
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This study is a business-as-usual, i.e. a burden-of-disease assessment with only one decision scenario. {{Disclink|Potential scenarios}}
+
=== Boundaries  ===
  
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This project is supposed to serve as a case study to represent the utilization of the pyrkilo method.
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*Population of Finland
 +
*Current situation
  
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===Intended users===
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=== Scenarios  ===
  
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===Participants ===
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* Business as usual (the current situation).
 +
* Total fish consumption is above the median.
 +
* Total fish consumption is below the median.
 +
* No fish consumption. {{reslink|Potential scenarios}}
  
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*Beneris researchers
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=== Intended users  ===
  
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==Definition==
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* Authorities giving food recommendations.
 +
* Anyone interested.
  
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===Decision variables===
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=== Participants  ===
  
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* None
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* [[Beneris]] researchers, especially [[User:Olli|Olli]] and [[User:Patrycja Gradowska|Patrycja Gradowska]].
  
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===Indicators===
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== Definition  ==
  
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*[[Intelligence quotient change in children in Beneris]]
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[[Image:Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish diagram.png]]
  
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===Other variables===
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=== Decision variables ===
  
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'''Environmental variables
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* Fish intake of pregnant mothers in Finland [[:beneris:File:Beneris Food consumption pregnant women FINLAND 300507 th.xls|Unpublished data, requires a password]].
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*[[Concentrations of beneficial nutrients in fish]]
+
 
 +
=== Indicators  ===
 +
 
 +
*[[Intelligence quotient change in children in Beneris|Intelligence quotient change in children in Beneris]]
 +
 
 +
=== Other variables  ===
 +
 
 +
'''Environmental variables'''
 +
 
 +
*[[Concentrations of beneficial nutrients in fish]]  
 
*[[Mercury and methyl mercury concentrations in fish]]
 
*[[Mercury and methyl mercury concentrations in fish]]
  
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'''Exposure variables
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'''Exposure variables'''
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*[[Domestic fish consumption of the pregnant women in Finland]]
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*[[Domestic fish consumption of the general population in Finland]]
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*[[Domestic fish consumption of the pregnant women in Finland]] (unpublished data, requires a password)
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*[[Fish oil intake in Beneris]]
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*[[Fish oil intake in Beneris]]  
 
*[[Methyl mercury intake from fish in Beneris]]
 
*[[Methyl mercury intake from fish in Beneris]]
  
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'''Population characteristics
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'''Population characteristics'''
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*[[Body weight in Finland]]
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 +
* [[Body weight in Finland]]
 +
* [[Baseline intelligence quotient (IQ) score in children]]
 +
* [[Intelligence quotient (IQ) in children in Beneris]]
 +
 
 +
'''Exposure-response functions'''
  
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'''Exposure-response functions
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*[[ERF of methyl mercury on intelligence quotient]]  
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*[[ERF of methyl mercury on intelligence quotient]]
 
 
*[[ERF of omega-3 fatty acids on intelligence quotient]]
 
*[[ERF of omega-3 fatty acids on intelligence quotient]]
  
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===Indices===
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=== Indices ===
 +
 
 +
* Fish (species): Herring, Vendace, Whitefish, Pike, Perch, Salmon, Pike-pearch
 +
* Water (from which the fish comes from): Baltic Sea, Inland lake
 +
* '''NOTE!'''
 +
** Herring is only from the Baltic Sea.
 +
** All pike-pearch is shown as "Inland lake" although a part comes from the Baltic Sea.
 +
** All salmon is shown as "Inland lake" although most of it comes from the Atlantic Ocean from Norway.
 +
 
 +
=== Analyses  ===
 +
 
 +
* What should be done to the total fish intake to keep the net effect of fish on the child's IQ positive?
 +
* For the scenarios "total fish above median" and "total fish below median", what is the [[VOI]] for different [[variable]]s?
 +
 
 +
== Result  ==
 +
 
 +
=== Results  ===
 +
 
 +
NOTE! Average DHA and methylmercury exposure leads to zero impact compared with the background IQ.
 +
 
 +
[[image:Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish.png]]
 +
 
 +
The top graph shows the distribution of changed IQ in the child due to fish consumption of the pregnant mother in Finland (compared with the situation without any fish consumption). The lower graph shows the result of the first analysis: what should the fish intakes be to ensure that the IQ of the child does not decrease? The lower panel of the lower graph lists each species (leftmost column), the central column shows the intake of that species in the current situation, and the rightmost column shows the intake in the hypothetical situation where no IQ loss may occur. From the graph, it can be seen that to reach the objective,
 +
* Atlantic salmon could be eaten more,
 +
* there is no need to change the intake of Baltic herring,
 +
* vendace, whitefish, and perch intakes could be slightly reduced during pregnancy,
 +
* pike intake should be clearly reduced during pregnancy,
 +
* there is not enough information to conclude anything about pike-perch.
 +
 
 +
[[Image:Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish VOI.png]]
  
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{| {{prettytable}}
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The [[value of information]] analysis shows that for the decision "increase the total fish intake above the current median versus reduce it below the median", there is theoretically 0.02 IQ points per child to be gained if more information would be available. The further information needs are mainly about the most consumed fish species, namely herring and salmon. More should be known about both DHA and methyl mercury.
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!Fish species
 
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|-----
 
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|
 
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*Farmed_salmon(sea+inland)
 
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*Wild_salmon(sea)
 
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*Herring_(sea)
 
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*White_fish(sea)
 
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*Sprat(sea)
 
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*Perch(sea)
 
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*Flounder(sea)
 
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*Pike-perch(sea)
 
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*Bream(sea)
 
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*Pike(sea)
 
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*Vendace(sea)
 
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*Burbot(sea)
 
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*Wild_salmon(inland)
 
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*White_fish(inland)
 
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*Perch(inland)
 
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*Pike-perch(inland)
 
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*Bream(inland)
 
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*Pike(inland)
 
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*Vendace(inland)
 
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*Burbot(inland)
 
−
|}
 
  
 +
===Conclusions===
  
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===Analyses ===
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* The consumption of oily fish can be increased without a fear of detrimental effects of methyl mercury in the children. In contrast, the consumption of predator fish, especially pike, should be avoided during pregnancy.
 +
* The case seems to be fairly well established, as the total value of additional information is fairly low.
  
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Interesting population subgroups for exposure might be:
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==See also==
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* pregnant women with high fish consumption (e.g. 0.95 percentile of fish consumption data of pregnant women)
 
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* pregnant women with average fish consumption (e.g. mean fish consumption of pregnant women)
 
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* pregnant women with very low or no fish consumption (e.g. 0.05 percentile of fish consumption data of pregnant women)
 
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* general Finnish population with normal fish consumption (as a comparison to the pregnant women scenarios)
 
  
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==Result==
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Fish-related assessments:
 +
* [[Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris]]
 +
* [[Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish]]
 +
* [[Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon]]
  
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===Results===
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==References==
  
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===Conclusions ===
+
<references/>
 +
[[Category:Beneris]]
 +
[[Category:THL publications 2010]]

Latest revision as of 11:22, 14 April 2011


Main message:
Question:

What are the effects of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids on development of intelligence quotient (IQ) in children? The source of exposure is Finnish fish consumption.

Answer:

  • The consumption of oily fish can be increased without a fear of detrimental effects of methyl mercury in the children. In contrast, the consumption of predator fish, especially pike, should be avoided during pregnancy.
  • The case seems to be fairly well established, as the total value of additional information is fairly low.


Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination

The Analytica model file contains the actual calculations for this assessment.

This project is planned to serve as a case study to represent the utilization of the open assessment method.

Scope

Purpose

What are the effects of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids on development of intelligence quotient (IQ) in children? The source of exposure is Finnish fish consumption.

Boundaries

  • Population of Finland
  • Current situation

Scenarios

  • Business as usual (the current situation).
  • Total fish consumption is above the median.
  • Total fish consumption is below the median.
  • No fish consumption. R↻

Intended users

  • Authorities giving food recommendations.
  • Anyone interested.

Participants

Definition

Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination

Decision variables

Indicators

Other variables

Environmental variables

Exposure variables

Population characteristics

Exposure-response functions

Indices

  • Fish (species): Herring, Vendace, Whitefish, Pike, Perch, Salmon, Pike-pearch
  • Water (from which the fish comes from): Baltic Sea, Inland lake
  • NOTE!
    • Herring is only from the Baltic Sea.
    • All pike-pearch is shown as "Inland lake" although a part comes from the Baltic Sea.
    • All salmon is shown as "Inland lake" although most of it comes from the Atlantic Ocean from Norway.

Analyses

  • What should be done to the total fish intake to keep the net effect of fish on the child's IQ positive?
  • For the scenarios "total fish above median" and "total fish below median", what is the VOI for different variables?

Result

Results

NOTE! Average DHA and methylmercury exposure leads to zero impact compared with the background IQ.

Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination

The top graph shows the distribution of changed IQ in the child due to fish consumption of the pregnant mother in Finland (compared with the situation without any fish consumption). The lower graph shows the result of the first analysis: what should the fish intakes be to ensure that the IQ of the child does not decrease? The lower panel of the lower graph lists each species (leftmost column), the central column shows the intake of that species in the current situation, and the rightmost column shows the intake in the hypothetical situation where no IQ loss may occur. From the graph, it can be seen that to reach the objective,

  • Atlantic salmon could be eaten more,
  • there is no need to change the intake of Baltic herring,
  • vendace, whitefish, and perch intakes could be slightly reduced during pregnancy,
  • pike intake should be clearly reduced during pregnancy,
  • there is not enough information to conclude anything about pike-perch.
Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination

The value of information analysis shows that for the decision "increase the total fish intake above the current median versus reduce it below the median", there is theoretically 0.02 IQ points per child to be gained if more information would be available. The further information needs are mainly about the most consumed fish species, namely herring and salmon. More should be known about both DHA and methyl mercury.

Conclusions

  • The consumption of oily fish can be increased without a fear of detrimental effects of methyl mercury in the children. In contrast, the consumption of predator fish, especially pike, should be avoided during pregnancy.
  • The case seems to be fairly well established, as the total value of additional information is fairly low.

See also

Fish-related assessments:

References

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