Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish

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The Analytica model file contains the actual calculations for this assessment. The actual code created with the ana-wiki converter can be found from [1].

This project is planned to serve as a case study to represent the utilization of the open assessment method.

Scope

Purpose

This assessment evaluates the effects of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids on development of IQ in children. The source of exposure is Finnish fish consumption.

Boundaries

• Population of Finland
• Current situation

Scenarios

• Business as usual (the current situation).
• A change in total fish intake such that, according to the model, keeps the net effect of fish on the child's IQ positive? D↷

Intended users

• Authorities giving food recommendations.
• Anyone interested.

Participants

• Beneris researchers, especially Olli and Patrycja Gradowska.

Definition

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Decision variables

• Fish intake of pregnant mothers in Finland Unpublished data, requires a password.

Indicators

• Intelligence quotient change in children in Beneris

Other variables

Environmental variables

• Concentrations of beneficial nutrients in fish
• Mercury and methyl mercury concentrations in fish

Exposure variables

• Domestic fish consumption of the pregnant women in Finland (unpublished data, requires a password)
• Fish oil intake in Beneris
• Methyl mercury intake from fish in Beneris

Population characteristics

• Body weight in Finland

Exposure-response functions

• ERF of methyl mercury on intelligence quotient
• ERF of omega-3 fatty acids on intelligence quotient

Indices

• Fish (species): Herring, Vendace, Whitefish, Pike, Perch, Salmon, Pike-pearch
• Water (from which the fish comes from): Baltic Sea, Inland lake
• NOTE!
  • Herring is only from the Baltic Sea.
  • All pike-pearch is shown as "Inland lake" although a part comes from the Baltic Sea.
  • All salmon is shown as "Inland lake" although most of it comes from the Atlantic Ocean from Norway.

Analyses

• What should be done to the total fish intake to keep the net effect of fish on the child's IQ positive?
  • For this policy (versus the current situation), what is the VOI for different variables?

Result

Results

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