Difference between revisions of "Climate change policies in Helsinki"

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This assessment was used for training in Decision analysis and risk management 2015 course. To see student contributions, see a previous version.

Scope

Question

What is the energy need of buildings in Helsinki and the related greenhouse gas emissions and health impacts? How can these be affected by renovation of buildings and fuel changes in district heating?

Intended use and users

A problem in the climate policy practices in the City of Helsinki is that there is not enough information about different costs and impacts of different climate change mitigation measures, especially in the long term. This is slowing down the decision-making process. The results of this course will be used at the City of Helsinki Environment Centre to assess the outcomes of different ways to reduce GHG emissions. The results will help in identifying the most favourable ways to cut GHG emissions.

Participants

Jouni Tuomisto (THL), the coordinator of the assessment
Tha perticipants of the Decision analysis and risk management 2015 course.
Helsinki Environment Centre
Siemens and the City Performance Tool experts

Boundaries

Time: 2010-2040
Spatial: the city of Helainki

Decisions and scenarios

Renovate 1 or 2 % of buildings per year.
Change the district heating fuel from 100 % fossil to 50 % fossil, 50 % wood-based fuel.

See also decisions in Climate change policies and health in Kuopio.

Show details

Decisions(-)
Obs	Decision maker	Decision	Option	Variable	Cell	Change	Unit	Amount	Description
1	Builders	EfficiencyPolicy	BAU	efficiencyShares		Add		0
2	Builders	EfficiencyPolicy	Active efficiency	efficiencyShares	Efficiency:Passive;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035	Add	fraction	0.25	All input must be given in units that are used in respective ovariables.
3	Builders	EfficiencyPolicy	Active efficiency	efficiencyShares	Efficiency:Passive;Time:2040,2045,2050	Add	fraction	0.1
4	Builders	EfficiencyPolicy	Active efficiency	efficiencyShares	Efficiency:Low-energy;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035	Add	fraction	-0.25
5	Builders	EfficiencyPolicy	Active efficiency	efficiencyShares	Efficiency:Low-energy;Time:2040,2024,2050	Add	fraction	-0.1
6	Basel district heating	FuelPolicy	BAU	fuelShares		Add		0
7	Basel district heating	FuelPolicy	Biofuel increase	fuelShares	Burner:Large fluidized bed;Fuel:Wood;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050	Add	fraction	0.2
8	Basel district heating	FuelPolicy	Biofuel increase	fuelShares	Burner:Large fluidized bed;Fuel:Gas;Time:2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050	Add	fraction	-0.2
9	Building owner	RenovationPolicy	BAU	renovationRate		Multiply	1 /a	1	Assumes BAU renovation rate = 1%/a for buildings >30 a old
10	Building owner	RenovationPolicy	Active renovation	renovationRate		Multiply	1 /a	2
11	Building owner	RenovationPolicy	Total renovation	renovationRate		Multiply	1 /a	5	5%/a is 100 % in 20 a

Timing

The data will be collected before the end of the Decision analysis and risk management 2015 course (12th May, 2015). The model runs will be finalised soon after that. Results will be available before September 2015.

Answer

Results

Conclusions

Rationale

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Causal diagram of climate change policies in Helsinki. This assessment only relates to the building stock part of the diagram.

Stakeholders

City of Helsinki

Dependencies

Tähän muuttujien hierarkkinen kuvaus buildingsista taaksepäin:

buildings Building model löytyy koodi, jonka lopputulos on Saved ovariables buildings, heatingEnergy, emissions, exposure. mainitaan t2b- tai muu data, josta muuttuja lasketaan. [linkki Opasnet Baseen]
- stockBuildings: data = temp
- heatingShares <- 1 sivun Building stock in Helsinki koodissa
- efficiencyShares: Energy use of buildings Taulukko: Energy efficiency of the new buildings in the future. OpasnetBase
- changeBuildings = stock Buildings
- renovationShares: Building stock in Helsinki -sivun koodi ottaa datan taulukostaan Popularity of renovation types. OpasnetBase
- renovationRate: Building stock in Helsinki -sivun koodi ottaa datan taulukostaan Fraction of houses renovated per year. OpasnetBase
- obstime: koodissa tällä sivulla
- heating_before: FALSE
- efficiency_before: TRUE
Building stock in Helsinki
Energy use of buildings
Emission factors for burning processes
Climate change policies and health in Kuopio#Direct inputs
District heating production units in Helsinki metropolitan area
Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland
OpasnetUtils/Drafts
Health impact assessment
Disease risk
Exposure-response function
Burden of disease in Finland

Data files

Climate policies Helsinki data
Climate policies Helsinki additional data
Helsingin_rakennuskanta_Facta_ajo_huhtikuu_2015
Additional sources of information (may be useful)
- Motiva, Sami Seuna [1]
- Tilastokeskus Jonna Hakala 09 1734 3419, energia@tilastokeskus.fi [2]
- VTT: Energy efficiency scenarios of buildings (2014) [3]
- VTT energy efficiency expert Jyri Nieminen
- Tampere University of Technology: EPAT: Energy saving potential in Finnish housing stock by 2050. [4] See especially section 4.2.4.

Discussions

These are some resolutions of discussions within the assessment.

City level climate change mitigation is not useless although international treaties are important for success.D↷
Climate change adaptation is not more important than mitigation on city level.R↻
Citizens may have a key role in implementing city climate policies.D↷
Food issues are underrepresented in climate discussions although food is a major emission source.R↻
The role of district heating by nuclear energy in Helsinki is unclear.D↷
There may be large uncertainty in CO2 emission factors of biofuels.D↷

Analyses

Indices

The data will be classified according to these indices:

Building: Residential, Public, Industrial, Other. For separating different use purposes of buildings.
Constructed: Years of construction of the buildings in the format 1990-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2013.
Heating: District, Electricity, Geothermal, Oil, Wood,

The results of each ovariable will be measuring these things:

buildings: total floor area in m².

Calculations

Model run 8.6.2015

+ Show code - Hide code

### THIS CODE IS FROM PAGE [[Climate change policies in Helsinki]] (Op_en7063, code_name = "")

library(OpasnetUtils)
library(ggplot2)
library(rgdal)
library(maptools)
library(RColorBrewer)
library(classInt)
library(RgoogleMaps)

openv.setN(0) # use medians instead of whole sampled distributions

objects.latest("Op_en6007", code_name = "answer") # [[OpasnetUtils/Drafts]] findrest

obstime <- data.frame(Startyear = c((198:206) * 10)) # Observation years must be defined for an assessment.

BS <- 24
heating_before <- FALSE # Should heatingShares be calculated before renovate and timepoints (or after)? 
efficiency_before <- TRUE # Should efficiencyShares be calculated before renovate and timepoints (or after)?
dummy <- 1
figstofile <- FALSE

## Additional index needed in followup of ovariables efficiencyShares and stockBuildings

############################ City-specific data

####!------------------------------------------------
objects.latest("Op_en7115", code_name = "initiate") # [[Building stock in Helsinki]]

###################### Decisions
#
decisions <- opbase.data('Op_en7063') # [[Climate change policies in Helsinki]]

DecisionTableParser(decisions)

# Remove previous decisions, if any. 

forgetDecisions <- function() {
	for(i in ls(envir = openv)) {
		if("dec_check" %in% names(openv[[i]])) openv[[i]]$dec_check <- FALSE
	}
	return(cat("Decisions were forgotten.\n"))
}

forgetDecisions()

renovationRate <- EvalOutput(renovationRate) * 10 # Rates for 10-year periods

#################### Energy use (needed for buildings submodel)

####!------------------------------------------------
objects.latest("Op_en5488", code_name = "initiate") # [[Energy use of buildings]] 
####i------------------------------------------------

###################### Actual building model
# The building stock is measured as m^2 floor area.

####!------------------------------------------------
objects.latest("Op_en6289", code_name = "initiate") # [[Building model]] # Generic building model.
####i------------------------------------------------

buildings <- EvalOutput(buildings)

buildings@output$RenovationPolicy <- factor(
		buildings@output$RenovationPolicy,
		levels = c("BAU", "Active renovation", "Total renovation"),
		ordered = TRUE
)

buildings@output$EfficiencyPolicy <- factor(
		buildings@output$EfficiencyPolicy,
		levels = c("BAU", "Active efficiency"),
		ordered = TRUE
)

bui <- oapply(buildings * 1E-6, cols = c("City_area", "buildingsSource"), FUN = sum)
bui <- truncateIndex(bui, cols = "Heating", bins = 4)@output
#levels(bui$Heating)[levels(bui$Heating) == "Long-distance heating"] <- "District heating"

ggplot(subset(bui, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & RenovationPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = buildingsResult, fill = Heating)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Building stock in Helsinki by heating",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Floor area (M m2)"
		)

if(figstofile) ggsave("Figure6.eps", width = 8, height = 7)

ggplot(subset(bui, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = buildingsResult, fill = Renovation)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		facet_grid(. ~ RenovationPolicy) + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Building stock in Helsinki by renovation policy",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Floor area (M m2)"
		)

ggplot(subset(bui, RenovationPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = buildingsResult, fill = Efficiency)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		facet_grid(. ~ EfficiencyPolicy) + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Building stock in Helsinki by efficiency policy",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Floor area (M m2)"
		)

ggplot(subset(bui, RenovationPolicy == "BAU" & EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = buildingsResult, fill = Heating)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Building stock in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Floor area (M m2)"
		)

ggplot(subset(bui, RenovationPolicy == "BAU" & EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = buildingsResult, fill = Building)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Building stock in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Floor area (M m2)"
		)

###################### Energy and emissions

#############################
# Toinen korjaus
#############################
energyUse <- EvalOutput(energyUse)
levels(energyUse@output$Building)[levels(energyUse@output$Building) == "Detached houses"] <- "Residential"
temp <- energyUse@output[energyUse@output$Heating == "Oil",]
temp$Heating <- "Other"
energyUse@output <- rbind(energyUse@output, temp)
#############################

####!------------------------------------------------
objects.latest("Op_en2791", code_name = "initiate") # [[Emission factors for burning processes]] 
####i------------------------------------------------

heatingEnergy <- EvalOutput(heatingEnergy)

################ Transport and fate

####!------------------------------------------------
iF <- Ovariable("iF", ddata = "Op_en3435", subset = "Intake fractions of PM") 
# [[Exposure to PM2.5 in Finland]] Humbert et al 2011 data
####i------------------------------------------------

colnames(iF@data) <- gsub("[ \\.]", "_", colnames(iF@data))
iF@data$iFResult <- iF@data$iFResult * 1E-6

#################################
# Kolmas korjaus
# fuelShares:sta puuttuu Heating-Other lokaatio
# emissionLocations:sta puuttuu Heating-Oil,Other lokaatiot (myös "District heating")
# heatingEnergy:n Heating-District vastaa fuelShares:ssa jotain turvepohjaista tuotantoa
# emissions@formula:ssa yksi rivi bugaa
#################################
temp <- as.character(heatingEnergy@output$Heating)
temp[temp == "District"]  <- "District heating"
heatingEnergy@output$Heating <- temp

emissionLocations <- EvalOutput(emissionLocations)
#levels(emissionLocations@output$Building)[levels(emissionLocations@output$Building) == "Detached houses"] <- "Residential"
temp <- emissionLocations@output[emissionLocations@output$Heating == "District",]
temp$Heating <- "District heating"
emissionLocations@output <- rbind(emissionLocations@output, temp)
temp <- emissionLocations@output[emissionLocations@output$Heating == "Heating oil",]
temp$Heating <- "Oil"
emissionLocations@output <- rbind(emissionLocations@output, temp)
temp <- emissionLocations@output[emissionLocations@output$Heating == "Other sources",]
temp$Heating <- "Other"
emissionLocations@output <- rbind(emissionLocations@output, temp)

temp <- fuelShares@data[1,]
temp$Heating <- "Other"
temp$Burner <- "*"
temp$Fuel <- "*"
temp$Time <- "*"
temp$fuelSharesResult <- 0
fuelShares@data <- rbind(fuelShares@data, temp)

temp <- function(...){
out <- oapply(heatingEnergy, cols = c("Building", "Efficiency"), FUN = sum)
out <- out * fuelShares * emissionFactors * 3.6 * 1e-09
out <- unkeep(out * emissionLocations, sources = TRUE, prevresults = TRUE)
out@output$Emission_site <- as.factor(
	ifelse(
		out@output$Emission_site == "At site of consumption", 
		as.character(out@output$City_area), 
		as.character(out@output$Emission_site)
	)
)
out <- oapply(out, cols = c("Burner", "City_area"), FUN = sum)
return(out)
}
#################################

emissions <- EvalOutput(emissions)
emissions@output$Time <- as.numeric(as.character(emissions@output$Time))

# Plot energy need and emissions

hea <- oapply(heatingEnergy * 1E-6, cols = c("City_area", "buildingsSource"), FUN = sum)
hea <- truncateIndex(hea, cols = "Heating", bins = 4)@output
#levels(hea$Heating)[levels(hea$Heating) == "Long-distance heating"] <- "District heating"

ggplot(hea, aes(x = Time, weight = heatingEnergyResult * 1E-6, fill = Heating)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) +
		facet_wrap( ~ RenovationPolicy) + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Energy used in heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Heating energy (GWh /a)"
		)

emis <- truncateIndex(emissions, cols = "Emission_site", bins = 5)@output

ggplot(subset(emis, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & FuelPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = emissionsResult, fill = Emission_site)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) +
		facet_grid(Pollutant ~ RenovationPolicy, scale = "free_y") + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Emissions from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Emissions (ton /a)"
		)

ggplot(subset(emis, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & RenovationPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = emissionsResult, fill = Fuel)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) +
		facet_grid(Pollutant ~ FuelPolicy, scale = "free_y") + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Emissions from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Emissions (ton /a)"
		)

ggplot(subset(emis, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & FuelPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = emissionsResult, fill = Fuel)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) +
		facet_grid(Pollutant ~ RenovationPolicy, scale = "free_y") + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Emissions from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Emissions (ton /a)"
		)

###################### Health assessment

####!------------------------------------------------
objects.latest('Op_en2261', code_name = 'initiate') # [[Health impact assessment]] dose, RR, totcases. 
objects.latest('Op_en5917', code_name = 'initiate') # [[Disease risk]] disincidence
directs <- tidy(opbase.data("Op_en5461", subset = "Direct inputs"), direction = "wide") # [[Climate change policies and health in Kuopio]]
####i------------------------------------------------

colnames(directs) <- gsub(" ", "_", colnames(directs))

### Use these population and iF values in health impact assessment. Why?

frexposed <- 1 # fraction of population that is exposed
bgexposure <- 0 # Background exposure to an agent (a level below which you cannot get in practice)
BW <- 70 # Body weight (is needed for RR calculations although it is irrelevant for PM2.5)

population <- 623732 # Contains only the Helsinki city, i.e. assumes no exposure outside city. (Wikipedia)
# Note: the population size does NOT affect the health impact as it cancels out. However, it DOES affect 
#	exposure estimates.

exposure <- EvalOutput(exposure)

ggplot(subset(exposure@output, RenovationPolicy == "BAU" & EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & FuelPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = exposureResult, fill = Heating)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 	facet_grid(Area ~ Emission_height) + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Exposure to PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Average PM2.5 (µg/m3)"
		)

exposure@output <- exposure@output[exposure@output$Area == "Urban" , ] # Helsinki is an urban area,
# rather than rural or urban.

ggplot(subset(exposure@output, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = exposureResult, fill = Heating)) + geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 	facet_grid(FuelPolicy ~ RenovationPolicy) + theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Exposure to PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Average PM2.5 (µg/m3)"
		)

totcases <- EvalOutput(totcases)
#totcases@output$Time <- as.numeric(as.character(totcases@output$Time))
totcases <- oapply(totcases, cols = c("Age", "Sex"), FUN = sum)

totcases <- truncateIndex(totcases, cols = "Heating", bins = 5)
levels(totcases@output$Heating)[levels(totcases@output$Heating) == "Long-distance heating"] <- "District heating"

ggplot(subset(totcases@output, EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & FuelPolicy == "BAU"), aes(x = Time, weight = totcasesResult, fill = Heating))+geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		facet_grid(Trait ~ RenovationPolicy) +
		theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Health effects of PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Health effects (deaths /a)"
		)

if(figstofile) ggsave("Figure8.eps", width = 11, height = 7)

DW <- Ovariable("DW", data = data.frame(directs["Trait"], Result = directs$DW))
L <- Ovariable("L", data = data.frame(directs["Trait"], Result = directs$L))

DALYs <- totcases * DW * L

cat("Total DALYs/a by different combinations of policy options.\n")

temp <- DALYs
temp@output <- subset(
		temp@output,
		as.character(Time) %in% c("2010", "2030") & Trait == "Total mortality"
)

oprint(oapply(temp, INDEX = c("Time", "EfficiencyPolicy", "RenovationPolicy", "FuelPolicy"), FUN = sum))

ggplot(subset(DALYs@output, FuelPolicy == "BAU" & Trait == "Total mortality"), aes(x = Time, weight = Result, fill = Heating))+geom_bar(binwidth = 5) + 
		facet_grid(EfficiencyPolicy ~ RenovationPolicy) +
		theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Health effects in DALYs of PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki",
				x = "Time",
				y = "Health effects (DALY /a)"
		)

ggplot(subset(DALYs@output, Time == 2030 & Trait == "Total mortality"), aes(x = FuelPolicy, weight = Result, fill = Heating))+geom_bar() + 
		facet_grid(EfficiencyPolicy ~ RenovationPolicy) +
		theme_gray(base_size = BS) +
		labs(
				title = "Health effects in DALYs of PM2.5 from heating in Helsinki 2030",
				x = "Biofuel policy in district heating",
				y = "Health effects (DALY /a)"
		)

koord <- tidy(opbase.data("Op_en7115", subset = "Locations of postal codes"))
colnames(koord) <- c("Emission_site", "X", "Y")
koord$Result <- 1
koord <- Ovariable("koord", output = koord, marginal = c(TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, FALSE))

emis <- emissions * koord

emis@output <- subset(emis@output, RenovationPolicy == "BAU" & EfficiencyPolicy == "BAU" & FuelPolicy == "BAU" & Pollutant == "PM2.5")
emis <- oapply(emis, INDEX = c("Emission_site", "X", "Y"), FUN = sum)

MyRmap(
		ova2spat(
				emis, 
				coord = c("X", "Y"), 
				proj4string = "+init=epsg:21781"
		), # Swiss Land Survey uses  CH1903 
		# http://spatialreference.org/ref/epsg/21782/
		# http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_coordinate_system
		plotvar = "Result", 
		legend_title = "PM2.5 emissions (ton/a)", 
		numbins = 4, 
		pch = 19, 
		cex = sqrt(result(emis)) * 3
)
# Map saved manually to .eps with width = 1280, height = 960 px.

Keywords

Helsinki, energy, building stock, heating, renovation.

References

Related files

In English
Assessment	Main page \| Helsinki energy decision options 2015
Helsinki data	Building stock in Helsinki \| Helsinki energy production \| Helsinki energy consumption \| Energy use of buildings \| Emission factors for burning processes \| Prices of fuels in heat production \| External cost
Models	Building model \| Energy balance \| Health impact assessment \| Economic impacts
Related assessments	Climate change policies in Helsinki \| Climate change policies and health in Kuopio \| Climate change policies in Basel
In Finnish
Yhteenveto	Helsingin energiapäätös 2015 \| Helsingin energiapäätöksen vaihtoehdot 2015 \| Helsingin energiapäätökseen liittyviä arvoja \| Helsingin energiapäätös 2015.pptx

Difference between revisions of "Climate change policies in Helsinki"

Revision as of 19:28, 8 June 2015

Contents

Scope

Question

Intended use and users

Participants

Boundaries

Decisions and scenarios

Timing

Answer

Results

Conclusions

Rationale

Stakeholders

Dependencies

Discussions

Analyses

Indices

Calculations

See also

Other variables and pages to look at

Keywords

References

Related files

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