Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring and salmon intake

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Scope

This assessment is part of the WP5 work in Goherr project. Purpose is to evaluate health benefits and risks caused of eating Baltic herring and salmon in four Baltic sea countries (Denmark, Estonia, Finland and Sweden). This assessment is currently on-going.

Question

What are the current population level health benefits and risks of eating Baltic herring and salmon in Finland, Estonia, Denmark and Sweden? How would the health effects change in the future, if consumption of Baltic herring and salmon changes due to actions caused by different management scenarios of Baltic sea fish stocks?

Intended use and users

Results of this assessment are used to inform policy makers about the health impacts of fish. Further, this assessment will be combined with the results of the other Goherr WPs to produce estimates of future health impacts of Baltic fish related to different policy options. Especially, results of this assessment will be used as input in the decision support model built in Goherr WP6.

Participants

• National institute for health and welfare (THL)
• Goherr project group

Boundaries

• Four baltic sea countries (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Sweden)
• Current situation (fish use year 2016, pollutant levels in fish year 2010?)
• Estimation for future (year 2020?)

Decisions and scenarios

• Increased use of Baltic herring and salmon as human food by following actions:
  • Promotion
  • guidance from health authorities
  • Better availability

Timing

• Model development during 2016 and 2017
• First set of results in March 2017, draft publication in March 2018

Answer

This section will be updated as soon as preliminary results are available

Rationale

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Schematic picture of the health benefit-risk model for Baltic herring and salmon intake.

Dependencies

Content of all variable pages below are preliminary and will be updated when this assessment proceeds.

• Toxic equivalency factor (TEF)
• Consumption of fish
• Pollutant and fatty acid levels
  • Persistent organic pollutant levels in Baltic herring
  • Persistent organic pollutant levels in Baltic salmon
  • Nutrient levels in fish
• Risk functions of health effects
  • Exposure-response functions of Dioxins
  • Exposure-response functions of fatty acids
  • Exposure-response functions of methylmercury
• Background health data (incidences and DALY)
  • Burden of disease as DALY in Finland
  • Disease risk: incidences in Finland and DALY in Europe
• Disability weights of health effects
• Length of disease

Indices

• Country (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Sweden)
• Year (current, future)
• Sex
• Age
• Fish species (Baltic herring, Baltic salmon)
• Health end-point
• Compound (pollutant, fatty acid)

Calculations

This section will have the actual health benefit-risk model (schematically described in the above figure) written with R. The code will utilise all variables listed in the above Dependencies section. Model results are presented as tables and figures when those are available.

See also

• Risk and Benefit Assessment of Herring and Salmonid Fish from the Baltic Sea Area
• Swedish Market Basket 2010
• Riksmaten 2010
• Danskernes kostvaner 2011-2013

Goherr Research project 2015-2018: Integrated governance of Baltic herring and salmon stocks involving stakeholders

Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination Goherr public website Workpackages including task description and follow-up: WP1 Management · WP2 Sociocultural use, value and goverrnance of Baltic salmon and herring · WP3 Scenarios and management objectives · WP4 Linking fish physiology to food production and bioaccumulation of dioxin · WP5 Linking the health of the Baltic Sea with health of humans: Dioxin · WP6 Building a decision support model for integrated governance · WP7 Dissemination Other relevant pages in Opasnet: GOHERR assessment · Relevant literature Relevant data: Exposure response functions of dioxins · Fish consumption in Sweden · POP concentrations in Baltic sea fish · Exposure response functions of Omega3 fatty acids Relevant methods: Health impact assessment · OpasnetBaseUtils‎ · Modelling in Opasnet Relevant assessments: Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring · Benefit-risk assessment on farmed salmon · Benefit-risk assessment of methyl mercury and omega-3 fatty acids in fish · Benefit-risk assessment of fish consumption for Beneris · Benefit-risk assessment of Baltic herring (in Finnish) Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination Error creating thumbnail: Unable to save thumbnail to destination http://www.bonusportal.org/ http://www.bonusprojects.org/bonusprojects