Difference between revisions of "Assessment on impacts of emission trading on city-level (ET-CL)"

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[[op_fi:Arviointi kaupunkitason politiikkojen ilmasto- ja terveysvaikutuksista Helsingissä]]
 
[[op_fi:Arviointi kaupunkitason politiikkojen ilmasto- ja terveysvaikutuksista Helsingissä]]
−
{{Assessment}}
 
 
[[Category:Climate change]]
 
[[Category:Climate change]]
 
[[Category:Energy production]]
 
[[Category:Energy production]]
 
[[Category:Classical air pollutants]]
 
[[Category:Classical air pollutants]]
−
NOTE! The name should be changed again: this assessment does not relate to trading of coal, but trading of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions.
+
{{Assessment|moderator=Mikko Pohjola
 +
| reference = {{publication
 +
| authors        = Mikko V. Pohjola, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Virpi Kollanus, Pauliina Taimisto
 +
| page          = Assessment on impacts of emission trading on city-level (ET-CL)
 +
| explanation    =
 +
| publishingyear = 2010
 +
| urn            =
 +
| elsewhere      =
 +
}}
 +
}}
  
−
Suggested new name: Assessment on impacts of emission trading on city-level (ET-CL)
+
'''Impacts of emission trading on city-level''' is an [[Impact assessment]] taking a wide perspective over environmental issues that can be dealt with on city level. The focus is on issues affected by the requirements set by an international treaty on greenhouse gas emission reduction and its regional operationalization in the EU. It studies several contemporary ideas, plans, and pieces of legislation in an integrated and systematic way. It tries to find hidden caveats, expose policies based on popular trends rather than science, and assess the impacts of new innovative solutions. It aims to offer information and guidance to the political process for developing a new international treaty in [[:en:United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#COP-15, Copenhagen, Denmark|the UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen (COP-15)]], December 2009. [[:Image:CarbonTrade city-level.ANA|The Analytica model file can be accessed here.]]
  
−
'''Impacts of emission trading on city-level''' is an [[Impact assessment]] that takes a wide perspective over environmental issues that can be dealt with on a city level. The focus is on issues that are affected by the requirements set by an international treaty on greenhouse gas emission reduction and its regional operationalization in the EU. It studies several contemporary ideas, plans, and pieces of legislation in an integrated and systematic way. It tries to find hidden caveats, expose policies that are based on popular trends rather than science, and assess the impacts of new innovative solutions. It aims to offer information and guidance to the political process for developing a new international treaty in [[:en:United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#COP-15, Copenhagen, Denmark|the UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen (COP-15)]], December 2009. [[:Image:CarbonTrade city-level.ANA|The Analytica model file can be accessed here.]]
+
== Scope ==
  
−
This assessment is tightly coupled with three other assessments:
+
[[Image:ET-CL model overview.PNG|thumb|680px]]
−
*[[Climate change, air quality and housing – future challenges to public health (CLAIH)]]
+
 
−
*[[Health and climate impacts of heat production in small municipalities (BIOHER)]]
+
=== Purpose  ===
−
*[[Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area]]
+
 
 +
The purpose is to evaluate the impacts of alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trade systems, which aim to reduce GHG emissions and thereby affect [[:en:Radiative_forcing|radiative forcing]]. The assessment is performed on a city-level, and the emission trade system is taken as an external constraint to the societal decision making on city-level. It thus considers city-level climate change mitigation measures in the major sectors causing GHG emissions, namely power production, heating, and traffic. Three major outputs are considered: a) greenhouse gas emissions, b) health impacts within the city, and c) costs of GHG emission trade and the direct costs of mitigation actions. The health impacts of climate change are not within the focus, but rather the impacts of climate change mitigation measures that are put in action in the city within decision making context constrained by the emission trading system. Individual and societal interests and decisions, and their interplay is specifically in focus. Situations where individual and societal values are in conflict are identified and examined. Policies aiming at resolution of these conflicts are sought for. {{disclink|Scope Definition}}
 +
 
 +
Especially, the assessment aims to produce useful guidance and insight into the [[:en:United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change|UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen (COP-15)]] in December 2009.
 +
 
 +
The basic research question for the assessment can be defined as:'''What are the impacts of emission trading on city-level?'''.
 +
 
 +
The question can be broken down into a set of sub-questions such as
 +
 
 +
*How does the composition of an emission trading system influence city-level decisions upon activities causing significant GHG emissions?
 +
*How do those city-level decisions affect the decision making of individual citizens regarding those activities?
 +
*how do these city-level and individual decisions together result as changes in the the activities, and consequently their impacts?
 +
 
 +
=== Boundaries ===
 +
 
 +
*Spatial: [[:en:Helsinki_Metropolitan_Area|Helsinki Metropolitan Area]] (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Kauniainen) {{disclink|Spatial}}
 +
*Temporal: From beginning of [[:en:European_Union_Emission_Trading_Scheme|EU ETS]] phase III (2013) to year 2030. Especially, years 2013 (beginning of EU-ETS phase III), 2020 (end of EU-ETS phase III), and 2030 (forecast point in [[Claih|Claih]]) considered.
 +
*Activity sectors: {{reslink|Inclusion of power consumption}}
 +
**Personal traffic
 +
**Heating of buildings and water
 +
*Pollutants:
 +
**CO<sub>2</sub> from transport and heat production
 +
**[[Fine particles|Fine particles (PM<sub>2.5</sub>)]] from transport and heat production
 +
*Health impacts: Cardiopulmonary mortality due to exposure to fine particles (PM<sub>2.5</sub>). [[DALY|DALYs]] are used for summarizing health effects. {{disclink|Health}}
 +
*Other impacts: Costs {{disclink|Costs}}
 +
**Direct internal costs of the activities
 +
**Costs of emission allowances (emission trading)
 +
**Personal direct costs for citizens consuming services provided by the activities in consideration
 +
**Health costs
 +
*Population: The whole population in the [[:en:Helsinki_Metropolitan_Area|Helsinki Metropolitan Area]] (capital region) is considered as the active population making societal and individual decisions regarding the activities and whose health impacts attributable to the activities are estimated. However, climate change impact of the emitted CO<sub>2</sub> is considered globally.
 +
*Decision-makers:
 +
**The international community deciding upon international climate agreement and political leaders of EU deciding upon the EU-ETS
 +
**The society in Helsinki region, in particular the [[:en:Helsinki_Metropolitan_Area_Council|Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council]] as the decision-maker for inter-municipality decisions such as public transport, and the city councils of Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen
 +
**Random citizens living in the area (as residents or passengers)
 +
*Decisions:
 +
**International decisions about the EU-ETS (as a constraint to city-level decision making)
 +
**City-level decisions regarding heating and transportation, influenced by the EU-ETS
 +
**Citizen-level decisions regarding the choice of mode of transportation, the choice of mode of heating in detached houses, and improving energy efficiency (as adaptation to the city-level decisions)
  
 +
<br>'''Optional extensions of the core assessment:'''
  
−
==Scope==
+
Possible extensions may take place in addition to the core project, if the right experts, resources, and interest show up during the assessment.
  
−
===Purpose===
+
*Power consumption could be assessed as one of the activities, especially if decisions affecting power consumption and its production are to be included in the assessment
 +
*[[:en:Copenhagen|Copenhagen]] could be another case city
 +
*The assessment of Helsinki could be extended to the whole metropolitan area ([[:en:Greater_Helsinki|Greater Helsinki]]), including the neighbouring municipalities within ca. 60 km from Helsinki (The current coverage is ca. 25 km)
 +
*Physical exercise due to daily activities and the related health impacts could be assessed (possible linkage with TAPAS!)
 +
*Household waste treatment (typically landfill vs. incineration) could be assessed as a source of energy, fine particles, and greenhouse gases
  
−
The purpose is to evaluate the impacts of alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trade systems, which aim to reduce GHG emissions and thereby affect [[en:Radiative forcing|radiative forcing]]. The assessment is performed on a city-level, and the emission trade system is taken as an external constraint to the societal decision making on city-level. It thus considers city-level climate change mitigation measures in the major sectors causing GHG emissions, namely power production, heating, and traffic. Three major outputs are considered: a) greenhouse gas emissions, b) health impacts within the city, and c) costs of GHG emission trade and the direct costs of mitigation actions. The health impacts of climate change are not within the focus, but rather the impacts of climate change mitigation measures that are put in action in the city within decision making context constrained by the emission trading system. Individual and societal interests and decisions, and their interplay is specifically on focus. Situations where individual and societal values are in conflict are identified and examined. Policies aiming at resolution of these conflicts are sought for.
+
=== Scenarios ===
  
−
Especially, the assessment aims to produce useful guidance and insight into the [[:en:United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#COP-15, Copenhagen, Denmark|UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen (COP-15)]] in December 2009.
+
Base-case: EU-ETS on phase III (2013-2020) as proposed by EU commission, including following amendments to current ETS phase II (2008-2012) (Follow the links for explanations of [http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/796&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en the latest EC proposal], [http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/35&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en the initial EC proposal], and check [[:en:European_Union_Emission_Trading_Scheme|EU-ETS in Wikipedia]]):
  
−
The basic research question for the assessment can be defined as:'''What are the impacts of emission trading on city-level?'''.
+
*Possibility to opt-out small installations from ETS, disregarding their activity, if a) &lt;35 MW capacity, b) &lt;25 kt reported CO<sub>2</sub> eqv emissions/year during each 3 year preceding start of phase III, or c) installations are operated by hospitals
 +
*''CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from petrochemicals, ammonia &amp; aluminium production included''
 +
*''N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from nitric, adipic &amp; glyoxalic acid production included''
 +
*''perfluorocarbon (PFC) emissions from aluminium production included''  
 +
*''capture, transport and geological storage of all GHGs included''
 +
*''aviation included starting from 2012''  
 +
*Total EU-wide emission cap instead of national action plans by member states
 +
*Auctioning of &gt;50&nbsp;% of emission allowances (instead of distributing all for free)
 +
*Road &amp; ship transport NOT included
 +
*Land use, land use change &amp; forestry (carbon sinks) NOT included
 +
*EU-wide emission cap set as: phase II cap average, adjusted to the broadened scope of phase III as well as the amount of excluded small installations, decreasing annually by 1,74&nbsp;%. The tentative annual cap figures (before adjustments) are presented in the table below. The final figures for the annual emission caps in phase III will be determined and published by the Commission by 30 September 2010.
 +
*EU-ETS assumed to continue with the same scope and same rate of annually decreasing emission cap until 2030
  
−
The question can be broken down into a set of sub-questions such as
+
<br>
−
*How does the composition of an emission trading system influence city-level decisions upon activities causing significant GHG emissions?
 
−
*How do those city-level decisions affect the decision making of individual citizens regarding those activities?
 
−
*how do these city-level and individual decisions together result as changes in the the activities, and consequently their impacts?
 
  
−
===Boundaries===
+
{| class="FCK__ShowTableBorders" {{prettytable}}
 +
|-
 +
! Year
 +
! Mio t CO<sub>2</sub>
 +
|-
 +
| 2013
 +
| 1,974
 +
|-
 +
| 2014
 +
| 1,937
 +
|-
 +
| 2015
 +
| 1,901
 +
|-
 +
| 2016
 +
| 1,865
 +
|-
 +
| 2017
 +
| 1,829
 +
|-
 +
| 2018
 +
| 1,792
 +
|-
 +
| 2019
 +
| 1,756
 +
|-
 +
| 2020
 +
| 1,720
 +
|}
  
−
* Spatial: [[:en:Helsinki Metropolitan Area|Helsinki Metropolitan Area]] (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Kauniainen)
+
Scenarios regarding international climate agreements (modifications to base-case):
−
* Temporal: From beginning of [[:en:European Union Emission Trading Scheme|EU ETS]] phase III (2013) to year 2030. Especially, years 2013, 2020, and 2030 considered.
 
−
* Activity sectors:
 
−
** Personal traffic
 
−
** Heating of buildings and water
 
−
** Power consumption {{disclink|Inclusion of power consumption}}
 
−
* Pollutants:
 
−
** CO<sub>2</sub> from transport and heat and power production
 
−
** [[Fine particles|Fine particles (PM<sub>2.5</sub>)]] from transport and heat and power production
 
−
* Health impacts: Cardiopulmonary mortality due to exposure to fine particles (PM<sub>2.5</sub>). [[DALY]]s are used for summarizing health effects.
 
−
* Other impacts: Costs
 
−
** Direct internal costs of the activities
 
−
** Costs of emission permits (emission trading)
 
−
** Personal direct costs for citizens consuming services provided by the activities in consideration
 
−
* Population: The whole population in the [[:en:Helsinki Metropolitan Area|Helsinki Metropolitan Area]] (capital region) is considered as the active population making societal and individual decisions regarding the activities and whose health impacts attributable to the activities are estimated. However, climate change impact of the emitted CO<sub>2</sub> is considered globally.
 
−
* Decision-makers:
 
−
** The international community deciding upon international climate agreement and political leaders of EU deciding upon the EU-ETS
 
−
** The society in Helsinki region, in particular the [[:en:Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council|Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council]] as the decision-maker for inter-municipality decisions such as public transport, and the city councils of Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen
 
−
** Random citizens living in the area (as residents or passengers)
 
−
* Decisions:
 
−
** International decisions about the EU-ETS (as a constraint to city-level decision making)
 
−
** City-level decisions regarding heating, transportation and electricity consumption influenced by the EU-ETS
 
−
** Citizen-level decisions regarding the choice of mode of transportation, the choice of mode of heating in detached houses, and improving energy efficiency (as adaptation to the city-level decisions)
 
  
 +
*Opt-out of small installations discarded from EU-ETS phase III
 +
*Road transport IS included in the EU-ETS phase III (emission allowances allocated to fuel suppliers)
 +
*EU-wide emission cap set significantly tighter than base-case following a possible tight international treaty agreed upon in COP-15 (how much might the cap be tightened?)
  
−
'''Optional extensions of the core assessment:
+
Background scenarios:  
  
−
Possible extensions may take place in addition to the core project, if the right experts, resources, and interest show up during the assessment.
+
*Future development paths according to IPCC scenarios (which scenarios to be chosen for assessment?)
−
* [[:en:Copenhagen|Copenhagen]] could be another case city.
 
−
* The assessment of Helsinki could be extended to the whole metropolitan area ([[:en:Greater Helsinki|Greater Helsinki]]), including the neighbouring municipalities within ca. 60 km from Helsinki. (The current coverage is ca. 25 km.)
 
−
* Physical exercise due to daily activities and the related health impacts could be assessed.
 
−
* Household waste treatment (typically landfill vs. incineration) could be assessed as a source of energy, fine particles, and greenhouse gases.
 
  
−
===Scenarios===
+
=== Intended users ===
  
−
{{disclink|Policy relevant decision options - GHG trade}}
+
*Participants of the [http://www.wwviews.org/ World Wide Views on Global Warming] stakeholder meetings
 +
*Participants of the [[:en:United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change|COP-15 meeting]] in Copenhagen
 +
*City-level policy-makers in all sectors in [[:en:Helsinki_Metropolitan_Area|Helsinki Metropolitan Area]] as well as everywhere else
 +
*International policy-makers related to climate change
 +
*General public
 +
*Scientists working on climate change and related fields of study
  
−
# Base-case: EU-ETS on phase III as suggested by EU commission, including following amendments to current ETS ([http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/index_en.htm], [http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/35&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en], [[:en:European Union Emission Trading Scheme]]):
+
=== Participants ===
−
#*possibility to exclude small installations from ETS if < 25 MW rated power and < 10 kt CO<sub>2</sub> emission/year
 
−
#*''CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from petrochemicals, ammonia & aluminium production included
 
−
#*''N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from nitric, adipic & glyoxalic acid included
 
−
#*''perfluorocarbon (PFC) emissions from aluminium production included
 
−
#*''carbon capture and storage (CCS) ''possibly'' included
 
−
#*''air transport included
 
−
#*centralized allocation of emission permits (total emission cap defined for whole EU instead of national action plans by member states)
 
−
#*auctioning of > 60 % of permits (instead of distributing all for free)
 
−
#*EU-wide emission cap set as: phase II cap (1859.27 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>), adjusted to the broadened scope of phase, and decreasing annually by 1,74 % (1720 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>e by 2020)
 
−
#*NOTE: road & ship transport NOT included
 
−
#*NOTE: land use, land use change & forestry NOT included
 
−
# Exclusion of small installations discarded from ETS
 
−
# Road transport IS included in the ETS (emission permits to fuel suppliers)
 
−
# EU-wide emission cap set as ??? (significantly tighter than base-case)
 
−
# Future development paths according to IPCC scenarios?
 
  
−
===Intended users===
+
Primary:
  
−
* Participants of the [http://www.wwviews.org/ | World Wide Views on Global Warming] stakeholder meetings
+
*The Risk research group from [http://www.thl.fi/ THL].
−
* Participants of the [[:en:United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change#COP-15, Copenhagen, Denmark|COP-15 meeting]] in Copenhagen
+
**Jouni (composite traffic)
−
* City-level policy-makers in all sectors in [[:en:Helsinki Metropolitan Area|Helsinki Metropolitan Area]] as well as everywhere else
+
**Marko (PM, traffic)
−
* International policy-makers related to climate change
+
**Mikko
−
* General public
+
**Virpi (relations to [[Claih|Claih]])
−
* Scientists working on climate change and related fields of study
+
**Pauliina (relations to [[Bioher|Bioher]])
 +
**Pasi (small scale energy production emissions)
 +
**Erkki (traffic: congestion charging)
 +
*Intarese WP1.4 ([[DALY|DALY]], [[Monetarization|Monetarization]], Risk perception??)
 +
*[[Open assessment workshop 2009|Open assessment workshop 2009]] participants
  
−
===Participants===
+
Potential:
  
−
Preliminary draft, no commitments whatsoever made.
+
*PM epi group in THL? ([[Claih|Claih]])  
−
* The Risk research group from [http://www.ktl.fi/ KTL].
+
*PM tox group in THL? ([[Bioher|Bioher]])
−
** Jouni (composite traffic)
+
*Exposure group in THL?  
−
** Marko (role?)
+
*PM emission group in UKU?  
−
** Mikko (role?)
+
*Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling group and Aerosol group in FMI? ([[Claih|Claih]])
−
** Virpi (Claih)
+
*Cost-benefit assessors with cost functions in USTUTT?  
−
** Pauliina (Bioher)
+
*[[Intarese (project)|Intarese]] SP3 2nd pass, [[Intarese (project)|Intarese]] mega-case?  
−
** Erkki (traffic: congestion charging, noise)
+
*Jim Morris (composite traffic)  
−
* PM epi group in KTL? (connection to Claih?)
+
*Niko Karvosenoja, SYKE (FRES-model)?  
−
* PM tox group in KTL?
+
*IIASA?
−
* Exposure group in KTL?
+
*TAPAS researchers
−
* PM emission group in UKU?
+
*[http://www.kuluttajatutkimuskeskus.fi/?l=en National consumer research centre]? (connection to [http://www.wwviews.org/ WWViews])
−
* Aerosol dynamics group in FMI?
+
*The [[Open Assessors' Network|Open Assessors' Network]]  
−
* Cost-benefit assessors with cost functions in USTUTT?
+
*Anyone interested, this is an [[Open assessment|open assessment]]
−
* Intarese WP1.4
 
−
* Intarese SP3 2nd pass?
 
−
* Jim Morris (composite traffic)
 
−
* Niko Karvosenoja, SYKE (FRES)?
 
−
* IIASA
 
−
* FMI?
 
−
* The [[Open Assessors' Network]]
 
−
* Anyone interested. This is an [[open assessment]]
 
  
 
==Definition==
 
==Definition==
Line 127: Line 176:
 
===Decision variables===
 
===Decision variables===
  
−
{{disclink|Policy relevant decision options - city-level decisions}}
+
International decisions (see also scenarios):
−
 
+
* Include road traffic in EU-ETS phase III (yes/no)
−
International decisions:
+
* Small installations excluded from EU-ETS phase III (yes/no)
−
* Include road traffic in EU-ETS (yes/no)
 
−
* Small installations excluded from EU-ETS (yes/no)
 
 
* EU-ETS emission cap set tighter than commission proposal (yes (how much?)/no)
 
* EU-ETS emission cap set tighter than commission proposal (yes (how much?)/no)
  
−
Primary city-level decisions (optimizing total cost, including health costs):
+
Primary city-level decisions (optimizing total societal costs including health costs):
 
* More support for public transport (Yes/No) - ''support targeted directly to ticket price
 
* More support for public transport (Yes/No) - ''support targeted directly to ticket price
 
* Extension of the district heating system (Yes/No) - ''additional network, additional heat production  
 
* Extension of the district heating system (Yes/No) - ''additional network, additional heat production  
 
* Founding a [[composite traffic]] system (Yes/No) - ''targeted to areas lacking good public transport, changed distribution of  car/composite/public traffic
 
* Founding a [[composite traffic]] system (Yes/No) - ''targeted to areas lacking good public transport, changed distribution of  car/composite/public traffic
 +
* Choice of fuel for district heating - two following options mutually exclusive (topic also considered in [[Claih]]
 +
** Replacing current plants as the district heat source with planned Fortum nuclear power plant in Loviisa or Fennovoima nuclear power plant in Ruotsinpyhtää (yes (proportion replaced 50%?)/no). {{comment|1|[http://www.kaleva.fi/plus/juttu781032_page0.htm Public vote about nuclear energy has been suggested.]|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] 20:33, 16 February 2009 (EET)}}
 +
** Investing in a new bioenergy plant within Helsinki (yes/no) -
  
 
Optional additional city-level decisions:
 
Optional additional city-level decisions:
 
* Subsidies for improving energy efficiency in buildings (Yes/No) - ''also to be considered in [[Claih]]?
 
* Subsidies for improving energy efficiency in buildings (Yes/No) - ''also to be considered in [[Claih]]?
 
* Area planning and land use (Dense vs. loose city structure for new buildings)
 
* Area planning and land use (Dense vs. loose city structure for new buildings)
−
* Replacing current CHP plants for district heating heat source with potential Fortum nuclear power plant in Loviisa (yes/no).
 
−
* Choice of fuel for district heating - ''also to be considered in [[Claih]]?
 
 
* Setting a congestion charge zone to downtown Helsinki (yes/no)
 
* Setting a congestion charge zone to downtown Helsinki (yes/no)
 +
* [[Non-emission-related climate change mitigation#Policies that reduce carbon dioxide in atmosphere|Large-scale biofuel use in transportation]] {{comment|2|Should be considered.|--[[User:Jouni|Jouni]] 02:03, 19 July 2009 (EEST)}}
  
 
Citizen-level decisions (optimizing direct personal cost):
 
Citizen-level decisions (optimizing direct personal cost):
−
* Mode of transportation (personal car/composite traffic/public transportation
+
* Choosing mode of transportation (personal car/composite traffic/public transportation)
 
* Choice of heating system in new detached houses (Electricity/Oil/Wood chip) (see [[Bioher|Bioher]])
 
* Choice of heating system in new detached houses (Electricity/Oil/Wood chip) (see [[Bioher|Bioher]])
 
* Energy efficiency upgrade (yes/no) - ''interaction with city-level energy efficiency subsidies
 
* Energy efficiency upgrade (yes/no) - ''interaction with city-level energy efficiency subsidies
Line 153: Line 202:
 
===Indicator variables===
 
===Indicator variables===
  
−
* Total societal costs
+
* Health impacts of PM2.5 from traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area
−
* Health impacts (cardiopulmonary mortality)
+
* Total societal costs of traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area
−
* Total GHG emissions
 
  
 
===Other variables===
 
===Other variables===
  
−
Main model
+
'''Impact assessment (main) model
−
* PM2.5 emissions
+
* outcomes
−
* PM2.5 exposure
+
** Health impacts of PM2.5 from traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area &rarr; f(PM2.5 emissions, dispersion, population, population activity patterns, ERF of PM2.5)
−
* Exposure-response function for PM2.5
+
** Total societal costs of traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area &rarr; f(operating cost, decision cost, GHG emission permit cost, GHG emission climate impact cost)
−
* DALY weights
+
 
−
* Population
+
already existing relevant variable pages:
−
* Background incidence of cardiopulmonary mortality
+
 
−
* Cost of emission permit
+
'''''PM2.5 exposure'''
−
* Direct personal costs for citizens
+
* [[PM2.5 intake fraction in Helsinki metropolitan area]]
−
* Future development paths (IPCC scenarios)
+
* [[Population of Helsinki metropolitan area]]
 +
* [[Human breathing rate]]
 +
 
 +
'''''Health effects from PM2.5'''''
 +
*[[ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population|ERF of PM2.5 on mortality in general population]]
 +
*[[ERF for short-term PM10 exposure and cardiovascular hospital admissions]]
 +
*[[ERF for short term PM10 exposure and respiratory hospital admissions]]
 +
*[[ERF for short term PM2.5 exposure and restricted activity days (RADs)]]
 +
*[[ERF for short term PM2.5 exposure and work loss days (WLDs)]]
 +
*[[ERF for short term PM2.5 exposure and minor restricted activity days (MRADs)]]
 +
*[[ERF for short term PM10 exposure and medication usage by people with asthma]]
 +
*[[ERF for short term PM10 exposure and lower respiratory symptoms (LRS)]]
 +
*[[Baseline mortality in Helsinki metropolitan area]]
 +
*[[Baseline morbidity in Helsinki metropolitan area]]
 +
*[[Birth rate in Helsinki metropolitan area]]
 +
*[[DALY weights]]
 +
*[[Duration of morbidity]]
 +
 
 +
'''''Costs'''''
 +
 
 +
''Citizen:''
 +
 
 +
''Society''
 +
 
 +
*Health costs of PM2.5 exposure in Finland
 +
**[[Value of a statistical life (VSL)]]
 +
**[[Value of a life year (VOLY)]]
 +
**[[Discount rate for health effects]]
 +
**[[Unit value of hospital admissions]]
 +
**[[Unit value of restricted activity days (RADs)]]
 +
**[[Unit value of work loss days (WLDs)]]
 +
**[[Unit value of minor restricted activity days (MRADs)]]
 +
**[[Unit value of chronic bronchitis]]
 +
**[[Unit value of respiratory medication use]]
 +
**[[Unit value of respiratory symptoms in asthmatics]]
 +
**[[Unit value of cough days]]
 
* Costs of mitigation measures (for non-technical measures there will be a discussion possibility on the [http://www.niam.scarp.se| National Integrated Assessment Webpage] : go to hot topics)
 
* Costs of mitigation measures (for non-technical measures there will be a discussion possibility on the [http://www.niam.scarp.se| National Integrated Assessment Webpage] : go to hot topics)
  
−
CHP module
 
−
* CHP production
 
−
* Consumption of district heating energy
 
−
* PM2.5 emissions from CHP
 
−
* GHG emissions from CHP
 
−
* Power consumption
 
−
* Power import
 
−
* PM2.5 emissions from power import
 
−
* GHG emissions from import
 
−
* Emission factors in CHP
 
−
* Cost of expanding district heating network
 
−
* Cost of emission permit
 
  
−
Housing stock module
+
'''Heat production module
−
* Building stock
+
* outcomes
−
* Cost of upgrading energy efficiency
+
** GHG emissions from heat production in Helsinki Metropolitan area &rarr; f(fuel consumption, emission factors)
 +
** PM2.5 emission from heat production in Helsinki Metropolitan area &rarr; f(fuel consumption, emission factors)
 +
** Operating costs of heat production in Helsinki Metropolitan area &rarr; f(fuel type, fuel consumption, fuel price, maintenance and operating costs)
 +
** Cost of district heating expansion in Helsinki Metropolitan area &rarr; f(expansion of district heating, coverage of district heating, unit cost of expansion)
 +
already existing relevant variable pages:
 +
* [[Emission factors for burning processes]]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
'''Housing stock module
 +
* outputs
 +
** Heat need of building stock in Helsinki metropolitan area (to heat production module) &rarr; f(building stock, heat need by building types)
 +
** Costs of energy efficiency renovations in Helsinki Metropolitan area
 +
** Costs of heating system renovation in Helsinki Metropolitan area
 +
already existing relevant variable pages:
 +
* [[Building stock in Helsinki metropolitan area]]
 +
 
 +
 
 +
'''Traffic module
 +
* outputs
 +
** PM2.5 from traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area
 +
** GHG emissions from traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area
 +
** Costs of traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area
 +
** Cost of implementing [[composite traffic]] in Helsinki metropolitan area
  
−
Traffic module
 
−
* Traffic volume
 
−
* PM2.5 emissions from traffic
 
−
* GHG emissions from traffic
 
−
* Personal direct traffic costs
 
−
* Cost of support for public transportation
 
−
* Cost of emission permit
 
−
* Set-up cost of a [[composite traffic]] system
 
  
 
===Indices===
 
===Indices===
Line 206: Line 291:
  
 
* [[Value of information]] (VOI) analysis on all decision options
 
* [[Value of information]] (VOI) analysis on all decision options
−
** [[Value of information|VOI]] on [[Fine particles|PM<sub>2.5</sub>]] emissions with an updated [[Fine particles|PM<sub>2.5</sub>]] dose-response function
+
** [[Value of information|VOI]] on [[Fine particles|PM<sub>2.5</sub>]] emissions with an updated [[Fine particles|PM<sub>2.5</sub>]] ERF
−
* Optimizing of actions based on cost-benefit analysis and a utilitarian decision-maker
+
* Optimization of actions based on cost-benefit analysis and a utilitarian decision-maker
−
* BBN
+
** BBN
−
* Analysis of conflicting interests of the citizen, the municipality, and the industry
+
* Analysis (identification) of conflicting interests of the citizen, the municipality, and the industry
 
* It might be a clarifying way to describe all energy flows using the basic unit (in addition to watt) which is equal to the primary energy consumption of an average person. This is something like 100 W (or for a working person, a few hundred watts). Another way to express radiative forcing is to compare it to the primary energy utilised for a particular greenhouse gas emission. Generally, the ratio is in the order of 1 J utilised, 300 J of increased radiative forcing.
 
* It might be a clarifying way to describe all energy flows using the basic unit (in addition to watt) which is equal to the primary energy consumption of an average person. This is something like 100 W (or for a working person, a few hundred watts). Another way to express radiative forcing is to compare it to the primary energy utilised for a particular greenhouse gas emission. Generally, the ratio is in the order of 1 J utilised, 300 J of increased radiative forcing.
  
Line 223: Line 308:
  
 
==See also==
 
==See also==
 +
 +
* [http://www.flipkart.com/climate-impact-adaptation-assessment-martin/1853832669-f0x3f8kfkc Climate Impact And Adaptation Assessment]: A Guide To The Ipcc Approach
 +
* [http://www.ymparisto.fi/default.asp?contentid=33039&lan=fi A preliminary examination of adaptation to climate change in Finland]
 +
* [http://www.ymparisto.fi/default.asp?contentid=298826&lan=en&clan=fi Ilmastonmuutosten vaikutukset, sopeutuminen ja skenaarioiden arviointi 2002 - 2009]
 +
* [http://www.earthscan.co.uk/EarthcastsAnnouncements/tabid/101766/Default.aspx Earthcast]
 +
* [http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/conferences/od2010/university.cfm?nmenu=6&sub=600 Open Days University 2010] for city-level planning and administration
 +
* [http://www.helen.fi/pdf/Helen_2020_kehitysohjelma.pdf Development program of Helsinki Energy] [http://www.tekniikkatalous.fi/keskustelu/?threadId=9518] [http://hevilmasto.wordpress.com/] [http://blogit.mtv3.fi/kaupunkilainen/] [http://www.ammattilehti.fi/uutiset.html?852] [http://www.vihrealanka.fi/uutiset/helsingin-energia-pesee-kasvojaan] [http://www.helen.fi/yritys/johtokunta/v09/0906lisa2.pdf Nuclear district heating?] [http://www.helen.fi/energia/uusiutuvat.html]
 +
 +
This assessment is tightly coupled with three other assessments:
 +
*[[Health and climate impacts of heat production in small municipalities (BIOHER)]]
 +
*[[Emission assessment of small-scale energy production in the Helsinki metropolitan area]]
  
 
* [[Bioher|Bioher (project)]] and the [[Health and climate impacts of heat production in small municipalities (BIOHER)|Bioher assessment]]
 
* [[Bioher|Bioher (project)]] and the [[Health and climate impacts of heat production in small municipalities (BIOHER)|Bioher assessment]]
−
* [[Claih| Claih (project)]] and the [[Climate change, air quality and housing – future challenges to public health (CLAIH)|Claih assessment]]
+
* [[Claih| CLAIH (project)]] and the [[CLAIH assessment]]
 
* [[:Intarese:Climate change policy assessment|Climate change policy assessment]]
 
* [[:Intarese:Climate change policy assessment|Climate change policy assessment]]
 
* [[Nugget:Carbon pie approach]]
 
* [[Nugget:Carbon pie approach]]
Line 242: Line 338:
 
* [http://scripts.mit.edu/~jfmartin/sip/master/ Greenhouse gas emission simulator by MIT CCI]
 
* [http://scripts.mit.edu/~jfmartin/sip/master/ Greenhouse gas emission simulator by MIT CCI]
 
* [http://green.wikia.com/wiki/Wikia_Green Wikia Green] on [http://www.wikia.com Wikia]
 
* [http://green.wikia.com/wiki/Wikia_Green Wikia Green] on [http://www.wikia.com Wikia]
 +
* [[Global Humanitarian Forum]] published a global [http://www.ghf-ge.org/index.cfm?uNewsID=157 human impact assessment of climate change].
 +
* [http://ilmastoblogi.wordpress.com/2009/05/27/puhe-ykn-paasihteeri-ban-ki-moonille/ Letter to UN Secretary General]
 +
 +
 +
;EU funded projects from Cordis database
 +
* [http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=OFFR_O_SOC_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=143&CAT=OFFR&QUERY=012565604f71:38d3:3832eff0&RCN=1810 Predicting the socio-economic impact of climate change]
 +
* [http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=OFFR_O_SOC_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=120&CAT=OFFR&QUERY=012565604f71:38d3:3832eff0&RCN=1995 Designing greener European cities]
 +
* [http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=OFFR_O_SOC_EN&ACTION=D&DOC=64&CAT=OFFR&QUERY=012565604f71:38d3:3832eff0&RCN=3989 Addressing urban-rural divide]
 +
* [http://www.ytv.fi/NR/rdonlyres/AE1E5156-9441-49DC-9C67-CC9C5089637B/0/vaikutusten_arviointinetti.pdf YTV: Pääkaupunkiseudun ilmastostrategialuonnos 2030] (Helsinki metropolitan area climate strategy)
 +
** [http://www.ytv.fi/FIN/seutu_tulevaisuudessa/ilmastonmuutos/ilmastostrategia/strategiaprosessi/esittelyaineisto.htm Presentation material]
 +
* [http://www.ytv.fi/fin/julia2030 Julia 2030]
 +
* [http://www.ytv.fi/FIN/seutu_tulevaisuudessa/ilmastonmuutos/pelit_laskurit/etusivu.htm Games and calculators about climate change]
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
  
 
<references/>
 
<references/>
 +
[[Category:Helsinki]]
 +
[[Category:THL publications 2010]]

Latest revision as of 07:19, 30 January 2011



Impacts of emission trading on city-level is an Impact assessment taking a wide perspective over environmental issues that can be dealt with on city level. The focus is on issues affected by the requirements set by an international treaty on greenhouse gas emission reduction and its regional operationalization in the EU. It studies several contemporary ideas, plans, and pieces of legislation in an integrated and systematic way. It tries to find hidden caveats, expose policies based on popular trends rather than science, and assess the impacts of new innovative solutions. It aims to offer information and guidance to the political process for developing a new international treaty in the UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen (COP-15), December 2009. The Analytica model file can be accessed here.

Scope

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Purpose

The purpose is to evaluate the impacts of alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trade systems, which aim to reduce GHG emissions and thereby affect radiative forcing. The assessment is performed on a city-level, and the emission trade system is taken as an external constraint to the societal decision making on city-level. It thus considers city-level climate change mitigation measures in the major sectors causing GHG emissions, namely power production, heating, and traffic. Three major outputs are considered: a) greenhouse gas emissions, b) health impacts within the city, and c) costs of GHG emission trade and the direct costs of mitigation actions. The health impacts of climate change are not within the focus, but rather the impacts of climate change mitigation measures that are put in action in the city within decision making context constrained by the emission trading system. Individual and societal interests and decisions, and their interplay is specifically in focus. Situations where individual and societal values are in conflict are identified and examined. Policies aiming at resolution of these conflicts are sought for. D↷

Especially, the assessment aims to produce useful guidance and insight into the UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen (COP-15) in December 2009.

The basic research question for the assessment can be defined as:What are the impacts of emission trading on city-level?.

The question can be broken down into a set of sub-questions such as

  • How does the composition of an emission trading system influence city-level decisions upon activities causing significant GHG emissions?
  • How do those city-level decisions affect the decision making of individual citizens regarding those activities?
  • how do these city-level and individual decisions together result as changes in the the activities, and consequently their impacts?

Boundaries

  • Spatial: Helsinki Metropolitan Area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa, Kauniainen) D↷
  • Temporal: From beginning of EU ETS phase III (2013) to year 2030. Especially, years 2013 (beginning of EU-ETS phase III), 2020 (end of EU-ETS phase III), and 2030 (forecast point in Claih) considered.
  • Activity sectors: R↻
    • Personal traffic
    • Heating of buildings and water
  • Pollutants:
  • Health impacts: Cardiopulmonary mortality due to exposure to fine particles (PM2.5). DALYs are used for summarizing health effects. D↷
  • Other impacts: Costs D↷
    • Direct internal costs of the activities
    • Costs of emission allowances (emission trading)
    • Personal direct costs for citizens consuming services provided by the activities in consideration
    • Health costs
  • Population: The whole population in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (capital region) is considered as the active population making societal and individual decisions regarding the activities and whose health impacts attributable to the activities are estimated. However, climate change impact of the emitted CO2 is considered globally.
  • Decision-makers:
    • The international community deciding upon international climate agreement and political leaders of EU deciding upon the EU-ETS
    • The society in Helsinki region, in particular the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council as the decision-maker for inter-municipality decisions such as public transport, and the city councils of Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen
    • Random citizens living in the area (as residents or passengers)
  • Decisions:
    • International decisions about the EU-ETS (as a constraint to city-level decision making)
    • City-level decisions regarding heating and transportation, influenced by the EU-ETS
    • Citizen-level decisions regarding the choice of mode of transportation, the choice of mode of heating in detached houses, and improving energy efficiency (as adaptation to the city-level decisions)


Optional extensions of the core assessment:

Possible extensions may take place in addition to the core project, if the right experts, resources, and interest show up during the assessment.

  • Power consumption could be assessed as one of the activities, especially if decisions affecting power consumption and its production are to be included in the assessment
  • Copenhagen could be another case city
  • The assessment of Helsinki could be extended to the whole metropolitan area (Greater Helsinki), including the neighbouring municipalities within ca. 60 km from Helsinki (The current coverage is ca. 25 km)
  • Physical exercise due to daily activities and the related health impacts could be assessed (possible linkage with TAPAS!)
  • Household waste treatment (typically landfill vs. incineration) could be assessed as a source of energy, fine particles, and greenhouse gases

Scenarios

Base-case: EU-ETS on phase III (2013-2020) as proposed by EU commission, including following amendments to current ETS phase II (2008-2012) (Follow the links for explanations of the latest EC proposal, the initial EC proposal, and check EU-ETS in Wikipedia):

  • Possibility to opt-out small installations from ETS, disregarding their activity, if a) <35 MW capacity, b) <25 kt reported CO2 eqv emissions/year during each 3 year preceding start of phase III, or c) installations are operated by hospitals
  • CO2 emissions from petrochemicals, ammonia & aluminium production included
  • N2O emissions from nitric, adipic & glyoxalic acid production included
  • perfluorocarbon (PFC) emissions from aluminium production included
  • capture, transport and geological storage of all GHGs included
  • aviation included starting from 2012
  • Total EU-wide emission cap instead of national action plans by member states
  • Auctioning of >50 % of emission allowances (instead of distributing all for free)
  • Road & ship transport NOT included
  • Land use, land use change & forestry (carbon sinks) NOT included
  • EU-wide emission cap set as: phase II cap average, adjusted to the broadened scope of phase III as well as the amount of excluded small installations, decreasing annually by 1,74 %. The tentative annual cap figures (before adjustments) are presented in the table below. The final figures for the annual emission caps in phase III will be determined and published by the Commission by 30 September 2010.
  • EU-ETS assumed to continue with the same scope and same rate of annually decreasing emission cap until 2030


Year Mio t CO2
2013 1,974
2014 1,937
2015 1,901
2016 1,865
2017 1,829
2018 1,792
2019 1,756
2020 1,720

Scenarios regarding international climate agreements (modifications to base-case):

  • Opt-out of small installations discarded from EU-ETS phase III
  • Road transport IS included in the EU-ETS phase III (emission allowances allocated to fuel suppliers)
  • EU-wide emission cap set significantly tighter than base-case following a possible tight international treaty agreed upon in COP-15 (how much might the cap be tightened?)

Background scenarios:

  • Future development paths according to IPCC scenarios (which scenarios to be chosen for assessment?)

Intended users

Participants

Primary:

  • The Risk research group from THL.
    • Jouni (composite traffic)
    • Marko (PM, traffic)
    • Mikko
    • Virpi (relations to Claih)
    • Pauliina (relations to Bioher)
    • Pasi (small scale energy production emissions)
    • Erkki (traffic: congestion charging)
  • Intarese WP1.4 (DALY, Monetarization, Risk perception??)
  • Open assessment workshop 2009 participants

Potential:

Definition

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Decision variables

International decisions (see also scenarios):

  • Include road traffic in EU-ETS phase III (yes/no)
  • Small installations excluded from EU-ETS phase III (yes/no)
  • EU-ETS emission cap set tighter than commission proposal (yes (how much?)/no)

Primary city-level decisions (optimizing total societal costs including health costs):

  • More support for public transport (Yes/No) - support targeted directly to ticket price
  • Extension of the district heating system (Yes/No) - additional network, additional heat production
  • Founding a composite traffic system (Yes/No) - targeted to areas lacking good public transport, changed distribution of car/composite/public traffic
  • Choice of fuel for district heating - two following options mutually exclusive (topic also considered in Claih
    • Replacing current plants as the district heat source with planned Fortum nuclear power plant in Loviisa or Fennovoima nuclear power plant in Ruotsinpyhtää (yes (proportion replaced 50%?)/no). --1: Public vote about nuclear energy has been suggested. --Jouni 20:33, 16 February 2009 (EET)
    • Investing in a new bioenergy plant within Helsinki (yes/no) -

Optional additional city-level decisions:

  • Subsidies for improving energy efficiency in buildings (Yes/No) - also to be considered in Claih?
  • Area planning and land use (Dense vs. loose city structure for new buildings)
  • Setting a congestion charge zone to downtown Helsinki (yes/no)
  • Large-scale biofuel use in transportation --2: Should be considered. --Jouni 02:03, 19 July 2009 (EEST)

Citizen-level decisions (optimizing direct personal cost):

  • Choosing mode of transportation (personal car/composite traffic/public transportation)
  • Choice of heating system in new detached houses (Electricity/Oil/Wood chip) (see Bioher)
  • Energy efficiency upgrade (yes/no) - interaction with city-level energy efficiency subsidies

Indicator variables

  • Health impacts of PM2.5 from traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area
  • Total societal costs of traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area

Other variables

Impact assessment (main) model

  • outcomes
    • Health impacts of PM2.5 from traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area → f(PM2.5 emissions, dispersion, population, population activity patterns, ERF of PM2.5)
    • Total societal costs of traffic and heat production in Helsinki metropolitan area → f(operating cost, decision cost, GHG emission permit cost, GHG emission climate impact cost)

already existing relevant variable pages:

PM2.5 exposure

Health effects from PM2.5

Costs

Citizen:

Society


Heat production module

  • outcomes
    • GHG emissions from heat production in Helsinki Metropolitan area → f(fuel consumption, emission factors)
    • PM2.5 emission from heat production in Helsinki Metropolitan area → f(fuel consumption, emission factors)
    • Operating costs of heat production in Helsinki Metropolitan area → f(fuel type, fuel consumption, fuel price, maintenance and operating costs)
    • Cost of district heating expansion in Helsinki Metropolitan area → f(expansion of district heating, coverage of district heating, unit cost of expansion)

already existing relevant variable pages:


Housing stock module

  • outputs
    • Heat need of building stock in Helsinki metropolitan area (to heat production module) → f(building stock, heat need by building types)
    • Costs of energy efficiency renovations in Helsinki Metropolitan area
    • Costs of heating system renovation in Helsinki Metropolitan area

already existing relevant variable pages:


Traffic module

  • outputs
    • PM2.5 from traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area
    • GHG emissions from traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area
    • Costs of traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area
    • Cost of implementing composite traffic in Helsinki metropolitan area


Indices

  • Time: Years 2013, 2020, 2030
  • Age groups: years 0-1, 1-30, 31-65, 65+
  • Area: 129 areas within the Helsinki Municipality Area

Analyses

  • Value of information (VOI) analysis on all decision options
  • Optimization of actions based on cost-benefit analysis and a utilitarian decision-maker
    • BBN
  • Analysis (identification) of conflicting interests of the citizen, the municipality, and the industry
  • It might be a clarifying way to describe all energy flows using the basic unit (in addition to watt) which is equal to the primary energy consumption of an average person. This is something like 100 W (or for a working person, a few hundred watts). Another way to express radiative forcing is to compare it to the primary energy utilised for a particular greenhouse gas emission. Generally, the ratio is in the order of 1 J utilised, 300 J of increased radiative forcing.

Result

Results

Not yet available.

Conclusions

Not yet available.

See also

This assessment is tightly coupled with three other assessments:


EU funded projects from Cordis database

References

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